EN 
PT_BR 
SAO PAULO (Reuters) – Depending on the intensity, frosts forecast for the coming days could cause problems for corn crops in Paraná and Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil's second and third largest corn-producing states in the second harvest, experts warned on Monday.
On Tuesday, much of the southern region will have a high probability of frost, according to a projection presented this Monday by Rural Clima. Paraná should have strong frosts in the south of the state and moderate to weak in other areas, according to the state agency Simepar.
On Wednesday, the polar mass advances and brings cold to Mato Grosso do Sul, Paraguay, São Paulo and southern Minas Gerais, an important coffee producing region, according to Rural Clima.
“It will affect areas of second-season corn, coffee, sugarcane, it will affect, there is no way it won’t affect, but it is far from being the frost of 2021,” said Rural Clima agrometeorologist Marco Antonio dos Santos, in a bulletin this Monday.
In 2021, the frosts were so intense that they reached coffee areas in São Paulo and Cerrado Mineiro, as well as the South of Minas Gerais. They also damaged corn and sugarcane areas.
But Santos reinforced that it should not be a “severe” frost.
In any case, many corn areas in Paraná, the second largest Brazilian producer, with expectations of a record harvest, may suffer the effects of the intense cold.
“In fact, if the intensity of the frosts is confirmed, we may see some impact. However, it should still be quite specific, as the concentration of strong frosts is in the southern region of the state and the volume of corn being planted is very small (in this area),” said Edmar Gervásio, a specialist at the Department of Rural Economy (Deral) of Paraná.
Paraná's second 2024/25 corn harvest was estimated at the end of May at a record 16.15 million tons, according to an assessment by Deral.
Mato Grosso do Sul is expected to produce 11.5 million tons in the second harvest, according to projections by state-owned company Conab.
The impact on the second crop in the center-south will depend on the intensity of the frost in areas that still have corn in the final stage of grain filling, such as northern Paraná and southern Mato Grosso do Sul, according to AgRural analyst Adriano Gomes
“But, in any case, both in Paraná and southern MS, there are many areas ready, just waiting for humidity to drop so they can be harvested. And the occurrence of frost in these crops can have more effects on quality. This will depend on the intensity as well, of course,” he said.
Production problems caused by intense cold in more advanced corn areas, close to harvest, tend to be less serious.
According to current figures from Conab, the second Brazilian harvest, which accounts for more than 75% of Brazil's corn harvest, is estimated at 101 million tons.
(By Roberto Samora)
