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PT_BR 
With 9.93 million tons of soybeans and 5.25 million tons of corn, the country is advancing in the harvest with higher prices, but the pace of sales below average worries the sector.
With the 2024/25 harvest season in Paraguay approaching, soybean production is expected to reach 8.69 million tons in the main harvest, according to a StoneX report. Considering both cycles in the Eastern and Western regions, the national estimate rises to 9.93 million tons.
According to StoneX Market Intelligence analyst Larissa Barboza Alvarez, soybean sales in the country reached 77.4% of the total, below the average of the last five years, which was 89.0%.
Less movement on the basis and a more supplied global market
The basis has hovered around US$$ -30/ton in recent weeks. According to Larissa, producers received, on average, between US$$ 320/ton and US$$ 350/ton. Last year, during the same period, the basis was US$$ -17/ton, offering a more favorable scenario for producers.
Larissa Barboza Alvarez, Market Intelligence Analyst at StoneX: “And for Brazil, in the July update, StoneX presented a slight increase in the estimate for the 2024/25 soybean harvest” – Photo: StoneX
Regarding international market movements, on the supply side, in addition to Brazil's record harvest, Argentina also achieved excellent results in the 2024/25 harvest, reaching 50.3 million tons, according to the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange. "And for Brazil, in the July update, StoneX presented a slight increase in the estimate for the 2024/25 soybean harvest, of just over 500,000 tons, reaching a total of 168.75 million tons—a historic record," emphasizes the Market Intelligence analyst.
Corn estimate remains unchanged
According to the StoneX report, corn estimates haven't been adjusted in the country, but the outlook could change in the coming weeks, depending on crop conditions, such as the weather. Despite being affected by the recent frosts, the grain is in an advanced stage of maturation. "Regarding productivity, a major impact isn't expected. However, regarding grain quality, this cold weather could cause some problems. But this will only be possible to assess starting this week, with the actual start of the harvest," Larissa points out.
Therefore, corn production is expected to reach 5.25 million tons. According to the report, harvest progress is between 5% and 10%, and sales are at 36.5%. "Prices are currently hovering around US$$ 135/ton. This represents a slight improvement compared to the US$$ 130/ton recorded the previous month," explains the Market Intelligence analyst.
