Wheat production in Brazil is expected to grow by 6.6% in the 2025/26 harvest

Estimates for the 2025/26 Brazilian wheat harvest were raised after further adjustments in the August update, but production so far is expected to be below the 2024/25 season, according to StoneX, a global financial services company. "Estimated production was 7.34 million tons, representing an increase of 6.61 TP4T compared to the previous estimate, although it remains below the volume obtained in the previous cycle," emphasizes StoneX Risk Management consultant Jonathan Pinheiro.

According to StoneX, this increase in national production was driven by the expansion of planted area in Rio Grande do Sul (RS). According to the current estimate, the cultivated area in the state is expected to reach 1.05 million hectares, an increase of 150,000 hectares compared to the projection released the previous month. This increase was primarily due to more favorable conditions in July, which allowed producers to continue their crops without the need for replanting in most cases.

Despite the more optimistic August estimate, the analyst highlights that recent weather conditions, especially the occurrence of frost in some regions, could result in productivity losses.

Reduction of 1.6% in imports and heated exports

According to the new survey, the Supply and Demand Balance is expected to reduce imports by 1.6%. However, domestic market supply is still expected to exceed the previous month's estimate, due to projections of higher production and expanded planted area in Rio Grande do Sul. "It is worth noting that imports could remain at levels close to those recorded in the 2024/25 marketing season, depending on the price of Argentine wheat, traditionally more competitive, and the quality of the grain harvested in Brazil," Pinheiro emphasizes.

In the international market, a higher export potential for Brazilian wheat was observed. Shipments are estimated to be 15% above the previously projected volume for the current harvest. "On the other hand, the lower exchange rate, with the appreciation of the Real against the Dollar, tends to reduce the competitiveness of the national product in the international market, potentially limiting export growth," concludes the consultant.