EN 
PT_BR 
The US tariff hike on Brazilian products could cause Brazil's exports to decline for the first time in 21 months. The same is expected to affect investment and employment rates in domestic industry.
The projection is included in the Industrial Survey, released this Wednesday (20) by the National Confederation of Industry (CNI). According to the survey, the index that measures the expectation of industry exports for the next six months fell 5.1 points in August, falling to 46.6 points.
When below 50 points, the indicator signals that businesspeople expect a decline in the sector's export volume. "The worsening of industry export expectations is closely related to uncertainties in the external environment, mainly due to the new US trade policy," summarizes CNI analyst Isabella Bianchi.
Falling employment and high production
According to the CNI, the repercussions of the measures announced by the United States contributed to the decline in the number of industrial employees observed in July 2025, despite the context of increased production in the sector. "After falling two points in August, the index measuring expected number of employees fell to 49.3 points. This means that business owners believe that the number of jobs in the sector will not increase in the next six months," the CNI reported, referring to the drop in the number of workers between June and July.
The production evolution index stood at 52.6 points in July. Above 50 points, this index represents an increase in industrial production compared to June. "The indices measuring expected demand and purchases of inputs and raw materials fell in August. The former fell 2.3 points to 53.1 points; the latter fell 1.6 points to 52.1 points," announced the CNI. "However, as they remain above the 50-point line, they indicate growth prospects for the coming months, albeit to a lesser extent than in July," it added.
Investment and UCI
Business owners are also less inclined to invest. The investment intention index fell 1.6 points to 54.6 points. This is the lowest reading for the indicator since October 2023. Still, the index is 2.1 points above the historical average of 52.5 points. The survey shows that the Installed Capacity Utilization (UCI) remained stable at 71%.
This percentage, explains the CNI, is the same observed in July 2024, and is two percentage points above that recorded in July 2023, when it reached 69%.
Stable stocks
Stability was also observed—at 50.1 points—in the index measuring inventory levels. The actual-to-planned inventory ratio was 49.9 points, "showing that inventories are aligned with industrialists' plans." The Industrial Survey surveyed 1,500 companies. Of these, 601 were small; 518 were medium-sized; and 381 were large. The survey was conducted between August 1 and 12, 2025.
