The international grain market projects significant adjustments for US corn in the 2025\/26 crop year, with expectations of lower production and increased ending stocks. Average crop yields are expected to decline to 185 bushels per acre, a reduction of 0.91 TP4T compared to the previous figure of 186.7 bushels per acre, reflecting the worsening crop conditions throughout September.<\/p>\n
![](\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/opresenterural.com.br\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/040-768x512-1.jpg?resize=300%2C200&ssl=1\")
<\/p>\nPhoto: Claudio Neves<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
As a result, total US production is expected to fall from 427.1 million to 422.8 million tons, a decrease of 1%. Despite the lower supply, the market estimates higher ending stocks, reaching 56.7 million tons, an increase of 5.7% compared to the previous month (53.6 million).<\/p>\n
According to Luiz Fernando Roque, Market Intelligence Coordinator at Hedgepoint Global Markets, the movement is a result of more robust initial stocks, inherited from the 2024\/25 crop, as indicated in the USDA's quarterly survey. "These larger stocks offset the expected reduction in production, which maintains the outlook for a bearish scenario in the market," he explains.<\/p>\n
With increased reserves and a still comfortable global supply, projections indicate that corn should face greater pressure on international prices throughout the new agricultural cycle.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n