Throughout 2025, one of the most important factors in maintaining strong demand for pork has been the growth in exports. In practically every month of the year, Brazil exported more compared to 2024, with September registering the highest monthly volume of pork shipped in history, with just over 134,000 tons of pork.\u00a0in nature<\/em>\u00a0(Table 1). Considering all products, between\u00a0in nature<\/em>\u00a0In September, processed pork exports reached 151,600 tons. For the year to date (January to September), Brazil exported 985,000 tons of pork.\u00a0in nature<\/em>, 14,28% (+123,120 tons) more than the same period last year.<\/p>\n Table 1. Export volumes of fresh Brazilian pork (in tons), month by month, in 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 and from January to September 2025, and percentage difference from 2025 to 2024. Prepared by Iuri P. Machado, with data from Secex.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n Consolidating its leadership, the Philippines, in September 2025, was the destination for more than 30% of our pork.\u00a0in its natural state;<\/em>\u00a0China remains in second place, and the growth in purchases from Japan, Mexico, and Vietnam is noteworthy (Table 2).<\/p>\n Table 2. Brazilian exports of fresh pork by destination in SEPTEMBER 2025 (in tons and in US$) compared to September 2024. Prepared by Iuri P. Machado, with data from Secex.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n It wasn't just pork that stood out in September's exports; beef hit a new monthly shipping record, and chicken continues to approach levels seen before the avian influenza outbreak at a commercial farm in Rio Grande do Sul in May (Table 3). The combined volume of the three meats exceeded 900,000 tons in September 2025, an unprecedented value for a single month. Furthermore, in the year-to-date figures (between January and September), even with the temporary decline in chicken shipments between May and August, 6.47 million tons have already been reached, almost 61 TP4T more than the same period in 2024 (Table 3).<\/p>\n Table 3. Brazilian exports of fresh beef, chicken, pork and the sum of the three, in tons, from January to September 2025, compared with the same period in 2024 and with the previous period. We do not yet have official slaughter data for the third quarter of 2025, but it is projected that the year will end with slight growth in the production of all three meats, somewhere between 2.5% and 41% of the total. Analyzing chicken exports, which are recovering after the aforementioned health problem, the growth in shipments coincided with the recovery of wholesale chicken carcass prices, with a considerable increase in September 2025 and a continuation of the upward trend in October (graph 1).<\/p>\n Chart 1. Average monthly price of chilled chicken in S\u00e3o Paulo (SP), in R$\/kg of carcass, over the last 12 months. The domestic cattle market, even with exports at a good pace, has been "moving sideways" for several months, with stable prices (graph 2), indicating that the cattle cycle turnaround has not yet materialized and that domestic availability remains tight.<\/p>\n Graph 2. CEPEA\/ESALQ Fat Cattle Indicator (R$\/@) in the state of S\u00e3o Paulo, monthly average of the last 12 months. Pork carcasses reached their highest price of the year in September 2025, but showed a decline in the first half of October (graph 3).<\/p>\n Graph 3. Special Pork Carcass Indicator \u2013 CEPEA\/ESALQ (R$\/kg) in S\u00e3o Paulo\/SP, monthly, over the last 12 months. Undoubtedly, this rise in pork carcass prices in September was driven by exports, as there are reports of exporting agribusinesses buying pigs on the independent market to meet their domestic demand. When analyzing the recent behavior of the live pig market for slaughter in the three southern states, S\u00e3o Paulo, and Minas Gerais, the price behavior in the latter is noteworthy. As can be seen in Graph 4 below, Minas Gerais, which had prices slightly below S\u00e3o Paulo and above the southern states, experienced the sharpest drop in mid-September compared to the other regions, at times having the lowest price among these markets. It is worth noting that around 90% of Brazilian exports originate from the three southern states and that S\u00e3o Paulo is the largest consumer market, but it is not self-sufficient in production. In other words, this movement in the Minas Gerais market is yet another indication that, during this period, exports were what sustained prices.<\/p>\n Graph 4. Live Pig Indicator \u2013 CEPEA\/ESALQ (R$\/kg) in MG, PR, RS, SC and SP, daily, from 01\/09\/25 to 13\/10\/2025. Prepared by Iuri P. Machado, with data from CEPEA.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n CONAB forecasts a record grain harvest in 2025\/26, with increased soybean production and a slight decrease in corn volumes.<\/p>\n On October 14th, Conab released its first 2025\/26 crop survey, forecasting an increase in soybean production of approximately 3.61 TP4T, growing from 171.4 million tons in the previous harvest to 177.6 million tons for the current planting season. For corn, a reduction in production of 1.81 TP4T is expected, from 141 to 138.6 million tons. The summer crop currently being planted is expected to yield around 25 million tons, practically the same as the first crop of the previous season. Even with this expected reduction in corn production, there is no foreseeable risk of a corn shortage in the coming months, supported by lower-than-expected exports due to stable corn prices (graph 5) and...<\/p>\n Graph 5. Average monthly price of CORN (R$\/SC 60kg) in CAMPINAS-SP, over the last 6 months, up to 10\/14\/2025. Final considerations<\/p>\n The president of ABCS, Marcelo Lopes, explains that despite the high meat exports in September, there was a decline in pork prices in most markets in Brazil, especially in the state of Minas Gerais, which has the largest herd of breeding sows in the independent (non-integrated) production system. \u201cHowever, by mid-October, prices are already showing signs of stabilization throughout the country, with an upward trend as November approaches, which historically is the month with the best prices for pig farmers. Although the rainy season in the central-southern region of Brazil has still relatively low water volumes, there is a good outlook regarding the weather and planting intentions, which should keep production costs stable,\u201d he concludes.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n![](\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/opresenterural.com.br\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Tabela-1.jpg?resize=740%2C360&ssl=1\")
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Prepared by Iuri P. Machado, using data from Secex.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n![](\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/opresenterural.com.br\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Tabela-4.jpg?resize=740%2C301&ssl=1\")
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Average from October 2025 to October 14, 2025.
Source: CEPEA<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n![](\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/opresenterural.com.br\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Tabela-5.jpg?resize=740%2C298&ssl=1\")
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Average from October 2025 to October 14, 2025.
Source: CEPEA<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n![](\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/opresenterural.com.br\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Tabela-6.jpg?resize=740%2C300&ssl=1\")
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Average from October 2025 to October 14, 2025.
Source: CEPEA<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n![](\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/opresenterural.com.br\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Tabela-7.jpg?resize=740%2C373&ssl=1\")
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Source: Cepea<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\nTHE Bela Cereais<\/strong> works with the best grains on the market and also keeps you up to date with the latest news and analyses on agribusiness.
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