Over the past 10 days, rainfall has been significant across much of the Southern Region, as well as in areas of the Southeast and Midwest, where volumes have exceeded the historical average for the period. In contrast, the situation remains unfavorable in Matopiba, with persistent drought and rainfall between 30% and more than 80% below average, reinforcing the water deficit and delaying planting progress in some areas, according to data from EarthDaily.<\/p>\n
The survey indicates that, on October 5th, soil moisture levels were reduced from northern Paran\u00e1 to Matopiba, reflecting the drought period observed at the beginning of spring. Thirty days later, on November 5th, a significant improvement in water conditions was observed in much of the South, Mato Grosso do Sul, S\u00e3o Paulo, Mato Grosso, and in some regions of the Southeast and Midwest, driven by the return of rainfall. \u201cDespite this partial recovery, soil moisture remains critical in large areas of Matopiba and in regions of Minas Gerais and the Midwest, where the absence of regular rainfall keeps the soil under water stress. This situation may cause delays in soybean planting and, consequently, postpone the start of second-crop corn sowing, with possible impacts on productivity,\u201d notes EarthDaily crop analyst Felippe Reis.<\/p>\n
![](\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/opresenterural.com.br\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/seca-Antonio-Carlos-Mafalda-1.jpg?resize=300%2C225&ssl=1\")
<\/p>\nPhoto: Antonio Carlos Mafalda<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
In the Matopiba region, accumulated rainfall in October was 62% lower than the historical average. Although rain is forecast in the short term, the expected volumes remain below normal, maintaining the water stress situation in the soil and limiting the recovery of ideal conditions for crop development.<\/p>\n
Minas Gerais is experiencing a similar situation. In much of the state's soybean-producing area, soil moisture levels are among the lowest in the last ten years, reflecting a persistent water deficit. Projections point to a gradual improvement in the short term, with the partial return of rainfall. Even so, moisture is expected to remain below the historical average, maintaining the alert for possible restrictions on planting progress and the initial establishment of crops.<\/p>\n
In the Midwest, soil moisture in Mato Grosso do Sul remains low in the north of the state, which explains the low NDVI values and the delay in planting. However, the forecast indicates an increase in moisture, mainly from November 12th onwards. In the South-Central region, conditions are already more favorable, with high soil moisture.<\/p>\n
In Mato Grosso, the vegetation index (NDVI) indicates a slower start to the harvest season compared to 2023, but slightly earlier when compared to 2024. Soil moisture dynamics show greater similarity to the pattern observed in 2024 than to 2023, which is a positive indicator.<\/p>\n
This configuration is favorable, since the weather contributed to good results in the 2024\/2025 cycle. Now, with humidity levels aligned with the recent pattern, an optimistic outlook for the start of the new harvest is reinforced.<\/p>\n
In Goi\u00e1s, soil moisture, which until recently remained well below average, has shown significant improvement in recent days. Forecasts indicate a continued increase in moisture levels in the coming weeks, which should favor planting and the initial establishment of soybean crops, currently behind schedule.<\/p>\n
Despite forecasts from the ECMWF and GFS models indicating above-average rainfall across much of Brazil in the coming days, both point to low volumes for the Matopiba region.<\/p>\n
Comparing November 5th to 12th, projections from the ECMWF model indicate increased soil moisture across much of the soybean-growing region, with the exception of Matopiba, where water stress is expected to remain severe, especially in western Bahia.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n