{"id":26203,"date":"2025-11-19T07:07:58","date_gmt":"2025-11-19T11:07:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/belacereais.com.br\/2025\/milho\/milho-catarinense-tenta-romper-ciclo-de-precos-baixos\/"},"modified":"2025-11-19T07:07:58","modified_gmt":"2025-11-19T11:07:58","slug":"milho-catarinense-tenta-romper-ciclo-de-precos-baixos","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/belacereais.com.br\/en\/2025\/milho\/milho-catarinense-tenta-romper-ciclo-de-precos-baixos\/","title":{"rendered":"Corn from Santa Catarina attempts to break the cycle of low prices."},"content":{"rendered":"

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Corn is still searching for a path to recovery in Santa Catarina after months of depressed prices. According to... Santa Catarina Agricultural Bulletin<\/a>According to a study prepared by Epagri\/Cepa, the price paid to producers reached its highest level of the year in March, but fell sharply until July, pressured by the global surplus. Since September, there has been a timid improvement \u2013 insufficient, however, to change the unstable situation.<\/p>\n

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According to agricultural engineer Haroldo Tavares Elias, from Epagri\/Cepa, the international scenario remains the main influencing factor. "The record harvest in Brazil and the United States, coupled with good production in Argentina and China, has put pressure on prices in the international market, which directly impacts prices in Brazil," he emphasizes.<\/p>\n

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Photo: Gilson Abreu<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

He points out that, at the beginning of November, there was an indication of an increase, but with little support. "The price remains with little variation until the 10th," explains the technician.<\/p>\n

Market awaiting USDA report.<\/strong>
\nThe absence of USDA reports since September, a consequence of the government shutdown in the United States, intensifies uncertainty in the market. According to Haroldo, this gap prevents buyers and sellers from adjusting expectations. "The market is waiting for the global supply and demand picture," he says.<\/p>\n

The estimate is that the next report will bring a negative revision to US productivity. "This correction could boost prices in Chicago by the end of the year, with repercussions in the domestic market," says the agronomist.<\/p>\n

Negative price variation<\/strong>
\nBetween September and October, the variation was -0.18%. In the accumulated total for the last 12 months (October 2024 to September 2025), the drop reaches -2.0%. In the same period last year, prices had risen. In 2025, they are stabilized, but at a low level.<\/p>\n

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Photo: Gilson Abreu<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

The domestic market is operating at a standstill.<\/strong>
\nThe report indicates a reduction in supply from producers, who are prioritizing the summer harvest, while buyers are operating with high inventories. The slow pace of business reduces liquidity and stifles any reaction.<\/p>\n

According to Haroldo, some domestic factors help to balance the situation. "Increased exports and domestic demand, especially for ethanol and chicken, could lead to a recovery in prices," he points out.<\/p>\n

Dollar and CBOT limit gains.<\/strong>
\nBrazil has exported 24.9 million tons this season. The sharp drop in supply from Ukraine (-58%) opens up additional space for Brazilian corn. However, the dollar's decline of 1.5% this week and pressure from the Chicago Board of Trade reduce the upside potential.<\/p>\n

In the United States, export demand is lower, impacted by EPA regulatory exemptions for biodiesel.<\/p>\n

Global supply weighs on the market.<\/strong>
\nPlanting of the summer crop in Brazil is progressing at 42.81 TP4T, while the second crop (safrinha) is 61.31 TP4T already sold. The country is expected to harvest 143 million tons.<\/p>\n

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Photos: Disclosure\/OPR Archive<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

tons. Argentina continues with 36% of the planted area, and the United States has favorable weather, with only localized droughts.<\/p>\n

Isolated weather events, such as losses in Paran\u00e1, do not alter the overall balance.<\/p>\n

Despite occasional positive openings on the B3 and the Chicago Stock Exchange, technical indicators point to continued pressure: low stochastic oscillator, negative momentum, and breakout of support levels.<\/p>\n

Perspectives<\/strong>
\nAccording to Haroldo, price behavior in the coming months will depend primarily on the external scenario. "The market should only feel a clearer change when there is a new reading of global supply," he points out.<\/p>\n

Until then, the combination of high inventories, reduced liquidity, and a global corn surplus keeps producers in Santa Catarina in a holding pattern.<\/p>\n

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Photo: Gilson Abreu<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Corn crop 2025\/26<\/strong>
\nInitial surveys by Epagri\/Cepa indicate that the 2025\/26 harvest begins with a scenario of recovery in the planted area of corn in the state. The good performance recorded in 2024\/25, especially in terms of productivity, encouraged producers to expand cultivation again after several years of decline.<\/p>\n

Planting began in August, following the agroclimatic zoning. For grain corn, the preliminary estimate indicates an increase of 1.55% in the cultivated area, reaching 259,700 hectares, compared to 255,700 hectares in the previous season. Corn destined for silage also shows growth, estimated at 1.3%.<\/p>\n

Although there is expansion, part of the corn acreage in the south of the state has given way to the expansion of tobacco cultivation, a trend that may influence adjustments in upcoming monthly reports.<\/p>\n

Comparative performance of the 2024\/25 crop year (already consolidated)<\/strong><\/p>\n

According to official data from Epagri\/Cepa, the balance of the last harvest reveals contrasting movements in corn cultivation in Santa Catarina. The planted area registered a slight expansion, going from 255,700 hectares in 2024\/25 to 259,700 hectares in 2025\/26, an increase of 1.55%.<\/p>\n

Conversely, productivity suffered a significant reduction: it fell from 9,852 kg\/ha to 8,742 kg\/ha, a decrease of 11,261 TP4T. With less<\/p>\n

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Photo: Disclosure\/Freepik<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Despite a decrease in yield per hectare, total production also declined, falling from 2.52 million tons to 2.27 million tons, representing a reduction of 9.891 TP4T.<\/p>\n

Even with weaker performance in the field, market behavior and positive results observed in previous years have motivated producers to recover some of the cultivated area lost over the last few harvests, signaling confidence in the sector's recovery.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

THE Bela Cereais<\/strong> works with the best grains on the market and also keeps you up to date with the latest news and analyses on agribusiness.
\nDon't forget to follow our social networks.<\/em><\/h6>\n

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Corn is still searching for a path to recovery in Santa Catarina after months of low prices\u2026<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":24919,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[223],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-26203","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-milho"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/belacereais.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26203","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/belacereais.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/belacereais.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/belacereais.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/belacereais.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=26203"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/belacereais.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26203\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/belacereais.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/24919"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/belacereais.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=26203"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/belacereais.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=26203"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/belacereais.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=26203"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}