Weather projections indicate the formation of a weak and short-lived La Ni\u00f1a, with greater intensity between November and December. From the beginning of 2026, the phenomenon should lose strength and give way to climate neutrality. The overall scenario is positive for the summer crop in Brazil, although there is concern about a possible reduction in rainfall in the far south of the country in December. Even so, expectations remain favorable for both Brazil and Argentina throughout the production cycle.<\/p>\n
In the United States, the 2025\/26 soybean crop shrank due to a smaller planted area. With reduced supply and increased competition from South American grain, exports are expected to reach 44.5 million tons. Even after the announcement of a trade agreement with China, the USDA cut its projection for US shipments. Analysts believe that if the Chinese do not accelerate purchases to reach the target of 12 million tons foreseen in the pact, prices on the Chicago Board of Trade may lose strength as new information reaches the market.<\/p>\n
The window for acquiring US soybeans is also limited. Contracts closed now are only expected to result in shipments starting in December, with arrival expected between the end of January and mid-February. After this period, Brazil gains competitiveness, with lower costs and the possibility of an earlier supply in 2026 thanks to the progress of planting.<\/p>\n
With the agreement between the United States and China finalized, the market's focus returns to the progress of the South American harvest, especially in Brazil. The pace of Chinese purchases and the performance of American exports should bring volatility to prices.<\/p>\n
In the global scenario, soybean production could reach high levels, supported by positive expectations for Brazil and Argentina, which tends to keep world stocks comfortable. For the Brazilian producer, however, the environment remains challenging: barring a significant crop failure, a hypothesis that, for now, is not on the radar, the forecast is for pressured prices and margins throughout the 2025\/26 season.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n