China has overtaken Russia and will become Brazil's main fertilizer supplier by 2025, reinforcing the dependence of the national agribusiness sector on Chinese export policies and increasing concerns about rising logistics costs. This shift occurs at a time of greater volatility in the global market and is likely to directly influence the purchasing plans of rural producers.<\/p>\n
![](\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/opresenterural.com.br\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/fosforo-fertilizante-2-1.jpg?resize=300%2C225&ssl=1\")
<\/p>\nPhoto: Disclosure\/OPR Archive<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
From January to October, Brazil imported 38.3 million tons of fertilizers, a volume higher than the 36.7 million tons recorded in the same period of 2024, according to data from the Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services (MDIC). The increase was driven mainly by China, which shipped 9.76 million tons to the country, about 25% of all fertilizer imported in the year.<\/p>\n
The growth is significant compared to the previous year, when the Chinese supplied 6.6 million tons, equivalent to 18% of the total. With this, the Asian country gained ground previously held by Russia, the traditional leader in the Brazilian market.<\/p>\n
The increased Chinese presence has strategic implications for Brazil. As supplies become more dependent on trade guidelines defined by Beijing, rural producers become more vulnerable to potential changes in export rules, seasonal limitations, or internal adjustments in the Chinese market. Furthermore, geographical distance increases logistical costs and can put pressure on the final price of inputs in the country.<\/p>\n
This scenario reinforces the need for more cautious planning on the part of farmers and reignites the debate about diversifying suppliers and stimulating domestic fertilizer production, especially at a time when domestic consumption remains high and essential to sustaining the competitiveness of Brazilian agribusiness.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n