With partial slaughter and export figures already available, it is possible to state that Brazilian pig farming will end 2025 with a recovery in production growth above expectations and a significant increase in pork exports. It was expected that production growth would be below 3% for 2025, as producers were recovering from a long crisis, paying off operating debts and other expenses to remain in business, and relatively high interest rates had become a significant bottleneck for investing in expanding production capacity. However, the data collected so far show that growth goes beyond productivity gains and increases in average slaughter weight, and indicate that there has also been a slight expansion of the breeding stock.<\/p>\n
Table 1 below, with slaughter data by federative unit, between January and September, demonstrates that there was an increase of more than 5% in tons of carcasses and almost 4% in slaughtered heads, when compared to the same period last year, highlighting the significant growth, above the national average, of pig slaughter in Minas Gerais (+11.7%), Rio Grande do Sul (+6.52%) and Mato Grosso do Sul (+5.08%); at the national level, the higher average weight of carcasses is noteworthy, increasing from 92.23kg in 2024 to 93.52kg in 2025.<\/p>\n Table 1. Brazilian pig slaughter from JANUARY to SEPTEMBER\/25, by Federative Unit, in heads and tons of carcasses (total and average weight in kg), percentage of each state in relation to the total and difference for the same period of 2024. Prepared by Iuri P. Machado, with data from IBGE.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n Without a doubt, the export sector was the highlight of pig farming in 2025. In the accumulated period from January to November 2025, Brazilian pork exports, including fresh and processed products, totaled 1.372 million tons, an increase of 10.41% (+129,000 tons) compared to the same period in 2024. In revenue, the accumulated increase reached 18.71%, with US$3.294 billion registered between January and November 2025 compared to US$2.774 billion in the same period of 2024.<\/p>\n Table 2 below shows the main destinations for fresh pork exports from January to November 2025, compared to the same period in 2024. Of particular note is the growth in sales to the Philippines, Chile, Japan, Mexico, Vietnam, and Argentina, which together represented an increase in shipments of more than 220,000 tons during the period, while China saw a decrease of 72,000 tons compared to the same period of the previous year.<\/p>\n Table 2. Brazilian exports of fresh pork by destination from January to November 2025 (in tons and in US$) compared to the same period in 2024. Prepared by Iuri P. Machado, with data from Secex.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n This "dispersion" of exports brings greater security to the export market, since it is worth remembering that China, just a few years ago, already accounted for more than 50% of our shipments.<\/p>\n It is estimated that the year 2025 will close, in relation to 2024, with production growth exceeding 5% in tons of carcasses, exports increasing by just over 12%, and domestic availability increasing by around 3%, surpassing the mark of 20 kg per capita per year. Due to this greater supply and the fact that prices are already at a relatively high level, a significant price peak for pork carcasses was not observed in November, as in 2024 (graph 1); in the same graph it is possible to observe that the price peak in 2025 was reached in September, precisely when exports were at a record high for a single month, with more than 134,000 tons of fresh meat shipped.<\/p>\n Chart 1. Special Pork Carcass Indicator \u2013 CEPEA\/ESALQ (R$\/kg) in S\u00e3o Paulo\/SP, monthly, over the last 24 months. Values for Nov\/24 and Nov\/25 highlighted. Source: CEPEA<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n Regarding the profitability of pig farming, 2025 can be considered the year of the effective recovery of positive financial margins. There was a favorable balance between the price paid to the producer and the cost of the main inputs (corn and soybean meal). Strong external and internal demand managed to absorb the growth in production, keeping prices firm throughout the year.<\/p>\n With favorable weather and an expansion of the planted area, the 2024\/25 harvest showed record production for both soybeans and corn. The good supply of grains and the high demand for oil, which caused the price of soybean meal to fall significantly, maintained a good exchange rate between the price of pork and these main inputs throughout the year (graph 2), allowing profitability in all months, as indicated by surveys from EMBRAPA swine and poultry in the Southern region (table 3).<\/p>\n Graph 2. Exchange ratio for SWINE: Corn + soybean meal MIX (R$\/kg) in S\u00e3o Paulo, from November 2023 to November 2025. Ideal exchange ratio considered, above 5.00. MIX composition: for each kilogram of MIX, 740g of corn and 260g of soybean meal. Prepared by Iuri P. Machado with data from CEPEA \u2013 prices in the state of S\u00e3o Paulo.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n Table 3. Total costs (complete cycle), estimated selling price and profit\/loss, monthly, in the three southern states (R$\/kg live pig sold) from January to November 2025 and the annual average for 2024. Prepared by Iuri P. Machado with data from: Embrapa (costs), Cepea (pig price).<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n Access to credit is a relevant issue for the current crop season (2025\/26), which is expected to rely more heavily on equity capital as part of the total used, likely resulting in reduced technology use; this, coupled with a less favorable weather forecast than last year, suggests lower final productivity for the current corn crop.<\/p>\n Final thoughts and what to expect for 2026<\/p>\n The recovery in pork production growth is consistent, and the already prolonged period of positive margins, in addition to the opening of new export markets, despite high interest rates, is stimulating the expansion of the activity to meet strong domestic and foreign demand.<\/p>\n The president of ABCS, Marcelo Lopes, explains that the growth in pork production is expected to continue in 2026, probably limited to no more than 4% compared to 2025. \u201cExport growth is expected to be around 3% compared to 2025. In the final balance, domestic availability should grow slightly more than 4%, which, in isolation, could determine a drop in prices paid to producers. However, it is necessary to analyze the supply and demand not only of pork but also of beef. If the trend for pork is to increase supply, the opposite is expected for beef cattle, with a cycle reversal determined by a significant reduction in cattle slaughter, even with high domestic and external demand. In other words, it is very likely that there will be an increase in fat cattle prices, which should help sustain pork prices,\u201d he concludes.<\/p>\n The only concern stems from the anti-dumping investigation against Brazilian beef being conducted by the Chinese government, the results of which are expected to be released on January 26, 2026. A potentially more severe restriction on exports to China could reduce price expectations for 2026. With a likely reduction in the corn harvest and increased demand for this grain, driven mainly by the ethanol industry, costs could be higher in 2026.<\/p>\n All these projections are based on the expectation of relative normality, without the occurrence of sanitary events, such as the outbreak of avian influenza in Rio Grande do Sul in May of this year, or geopolitical issues that could interfere with exports. In short, even in a more challenging scenario than 2025, the year 2026 tends to be a favorable period for pork production, with good price competitiveness, especially compared to beef.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n![](\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/abcs.org.br\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/image.png?resize=740%2C247&ssl=1\")
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