After an atypical end to 2025, where the stability of pork prices was evident in the last quarter, demonstrating an adjustment between supply and demand, the first half of 2026 showed a drop in prices, a normal movement at the beginning of the year, when the payment of taxes and other expenses dominate the consumer's budget.<\/p>\n
Live pig and carcass prices reached their highest point of the year in September 2025 (Graph 1), precisely in the month with a record high in exports. It is noteworthy that, since March 2025, live pig prices in S\u00e3o Paulo have surpassed those in Minas Gerais, a position that remains unchanged to this day.<\/p>\n
Between September and November of last year, Paran\u00e1 surpassed Minas Gerais. This reversal between Minas Gerais and S\u00e3o Paulo demonstrates regional differences in demand, since Minas Gerais, whose production grew significantly last year, is a more closed market, while S\u00e3o Paulo sources a good portion of its slaughter from other states, often competing with large exporting companies that, with a heated external market, supplement their slaughter by seeking animals on the spot market. This situation is likely to continue as long as the export market continues to grow.<\/p>\n Chart 1 \u2013 Average monthly price of live pigs in Minas Gerais, Paran\u00e1, and S\u00e3o Paulo (R$\/kg), and of special carcasses in S\u00e3o Paulo, from January 2025 to January 20, 2026. Note the month of March 2025, when the price of live pigs in S\u00e3o Paulo surpassed that of Minas Gerais. Left axis: live pig price; right axis: carcass price. Prepared by Iuri Machado, with data from Cepea.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n The 2025 export figures are consolidated and confirm a quite significant growth in shipments. As shown in Table 1 below, exported pork and its derivatives (fresh and processed) represented almost 1.5 million tons, an increase of 11,62% compared to the previous year, totaling revenue of more than 3.5 billion dollars.<\/p>\n Table 1 \u2013 Total Brazilian pork exports (fresh and processed) in 2024 and 2025, in tons and in US$ 1,000. Prepared by Iuri Machado, with data from Secex.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n Table 2 below shows the main destinations for fresh pork exports throughout 2025, compared to the same period in 2024.<\/p>\n Of particular note is the growth in sales to the Philippines, Japan, Mexico, and Argentina, and the decline in shipments to China, which, although it finished in second place for the year to date, fell to fifth place in December 2025, with only 7% of the month's volumes (Table 3).<\/p>\n Table 2 \u2013 Brazilian exports of fresh pork by destination in 2025 (in tons and in US$) compared to 2024. Prepared by Iuri Machado, with data from Secex.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n Table 3 \u2013 Brazilian exports of fresh pork by destination in December 2026 (in tons and in US$) compared to the same period in 2024. Prepared by Iuri Machado, with data from Secex.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n Graph 2 below shows the monthly evolution of Brazilian exports to the five main destinations in 2025, demonstrating the significant growth of the Philippines, the stability of Chile, and the shrinking of the Chinese market.<\/p>\n Chart 2 \u2013 Monthly tonnage of fresh Brazilian pork shipped to the five main destinations, month by month, in 2025. Prepared by Iuri Machado, with data from Secex.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n Not only did pork stand out in export growth, but beef also broke successive monthly records in the second half of 2025 (Table 4), which helped to offset the significant growth in cattle slaughter.<\/p>\n Chicken meat, which started 2025 with a very good export pace, was hampered by the outbreak of avian influenza in May in Rio Grande do Sul, but ended the year growing again after virtually all sanitary barriers resulting from the outbreak were lifted.<\/p>\n \u00a0Table 4 \u2013 Brazilian exports of fresh beef, chicken, pork, and the sum of the three, in tons, month by month, from January to December 2025, compared to the same period in 2024. Prepared by Iuri Machado, with data from Secex.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n Even without official and definitive slaughter data for the last quarter of 2025, it is already possible to estimate the overall balance of pig farming for last year and project the year 2026 (Table 5).<\/p>\n Table 5 \u2013 Evolution of the balance of swine production in Brazil from 2022 to 2026. *2025 data estimated. **2026 data projected. Prepared by Iuri Machado, with data from Secex and IBGE.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n The summer crop, after a relatively troubled planting season with irregular rainfall in important regions, now has a good outlook and estimates of a new record soybean harvest volume. It is still too early to project precise corn production volumes, but everything indicates that the planting window for the second crop will be favorable in the vast majority of regions, as will the weather during the most critical phases of the cereal's growth.<\/p>\n The corn and soybean meal market has responded with stability, without major fluctuations, which has guaranteed pig farmers a good exchange rate (Graph 3) and allowed, throughout 2025, better average financial margins than in 2024 (Table 6).<\/p>\n \u00a0Chart 3 \u2013 Swine Exchange Ratio: Corn + Soybean Meal MIX (R$\/kg) in S\u00e3o Paulo, from December 2023 to December 2025. Ideal exchange ratio considered, above R$ 5. MIX composition: for each kilogram of MIX, 740g of corn and 260g of soybean meal. Prepared by Iuri Machado with data from Cepea \u2013 prices in the state of S\u00e3o Paulo.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n \u00a0Table 6 \u2013 Total costs (complete cycle), estimated selling price and profit\/loss, monthly, in the three southern states (R$\/kg live pig sold) from January to December 2025 and the annual average for 2024. Prepared by Iuri Machado with data from: Embrapa (costs), Cepea (pig price).<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n According to the president of ABCS, Marcelo Lopes, the year began relatively calmly in the domestic market, when compared to the successive news coming from abroad, such as the taxation of Brazilian beef by China, the establishment of quotas for our pork by Mexico, African swine fever in Spain, in addition to occurrences on the world stage that threaten the economic and political stability of all countries. "The Brazilian market began 2026 showing signs of adjustment between supply and demand for pork, which should determine another year of less frequent and smaller fluctuations, provided there are no unexpected events along the way," he points out.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n![](\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/abcs.org.br\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/image.png?resize=736%2C379&ssl=1\")
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