The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) released its first projections for the 2026\/27 crop season during the Outlook Forum held last week. The numbers indicate a reduction in corn production and an increase in soybean production in the American production system.<\/p>\n
The total area planted with corn, soybeans, wheat, and cotton was estimated at 94.5 million hectares, slightly below the previous harvest. The main adjustment is in corn, which is expected to lose ground to soybeans.<\/p>\n
The corn acreage is projected at 38 million hectares, a decrease compared to 2025. Soybeans are expected to occupy 34.4 million hectares, with expansion sustained by better relative profitability and the dynamics of crop rotation, especially in the US Midwest. Wheat has an estimated area of 18.2 million hectares, a slight decrease, while cotton should reach 3.8 million hectares, although the harvested area should be 3.16 million hectares, due to an abandonment rate close to 20%.<\/p>\n
![](\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/opresenterural.com.br\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/shutterstock_550409548.jpg?resize=300%2C198&ssl=1\")
<\/p>\n
According to data from Ita\u00fa BBA Agro Consulting, the current price relationship between soybeans and corn on the CBOT is more favorable for soybeans than in the same period last year, although, considering the November 2026 futures contracts for soybeans and December 2026 for corn, the relationship is close to the historical average.<\/p>\n
Regarding production, the USDA projects a corn harvest of approximately 400 million tons in 2026\/27, a volume about 30 million tons lower than the previous cycle. The reduction is mainly attributed to the smaller planted area, since the estimated productivity remains high, close to 11.5 tons per hectare.<\/p>\n
For soybeans, production is estimated at 121 million tons, resulting from a combination of increased acreage and projected productivity of around 3.6 tons per hectare. This increase should support the expansion of domestic crushing and partially replenish exportable supply.<\/p>\n
For wheat, production is expected to reach 50.6 million tons, a decrease of approximately 6% compared to the previous harvest, reflecting a smaller harvested area and lower productivity than the record of the last cycle. For cotton, production is estimated at 3 million tons, a decrease of 2%.<\/p>\n
![](\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/opresenterural.com.br\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/Milho-seco-Foto-Jaelson-Lucas-AEN.jpg?resize=300%2C200&ssl=1\")
<\/p>\nPhoto: Jaelson Lucas<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
In the by-products segment, soybean meal production is projected at 56.9 million tons, with exports estimated at 18.9 million tons. Soybean oil is expected to reach 14.2 million tons, with a highlight on its use in biodiesel, estimated at 7.8 million tons \u2014 an increase of 17% over 2025\/26, driven by targets related to the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) and low-carbon state policies.<\/p>\n
The USDA estimates that the US corn supply is likely to tighten in 2026\/27, while soybeans show a recovery in production. Wheat and cotton production is lower, but stocks are still considered comfortable.<\/p>\n
Among the factors that should influence the market throughout the harvest season are the behavior of Chinese soybean purchases, the definition of biofuel targets in the United States, weather conditions during crop development, and the consolidation of the South American harvest.<\/p>\n
A new report with updated estimates of planted area, the Prospective Plantings report, will be released on March 31st, with data based on interviews with American producers.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n