Wheat planting in the state of S\u00e3o Paulo is expected to see a reduction in area in the next harvest, a direct reflection of a global market with ample supply and pressured prices. The uncertain scenario for the winter cycle was the central theme of the first meeting of the year of the S\u00e3o Paulo Wheat Sector Chamber, held on Thursday (05).<\/p>\n
The meeting, which was also broadcast\u00a0online<\/em>The meeting, held in a hybrid format at the headquarters of the Cap\u00e3o Bonito Agroindustrial Cooperative (CACB), brought together leaders, cooperatives, and analysts to outline the sector's guidelines.<\/p>\n According to the new president of the Sectoral Chamber, Ruy Zanardi, this is a crucial moment for producer planning. \u201cDue to the global grain market situation, there may be a decrease in planted area in S\u00e3o Paulo this year. Wheat planting remains one of the best options for winter crops, considering the guaranteed liquidity provided by the S\u00e3o Paulo milling industry and the fact that, agronomically, wheat contributes to increased soybean productivity,\u201d he stated during the meeting.<\/p>\n The Castrolanda Cooperative also reported a drastic reduction in winter planting areas, with wheat decreasing from 5,700 to 4,590 hectares. According to agricultural consultant Jeandro Oliveira, the delay in the soybean harvest directly impacted the schedule. "The producer ends up entering the winter crop season already financially negative, which makes maintaining the planted areas difficult," he explained.<\/p>\n The presentation by Cooperativa Holambra also demonstrated that the scenario is one of greater stability, with a forecast of maintaining the 25,000 hectares from 2025, but that barley is emerging as a strong competitor, jumping from 2,000 to 5,000 hectares this year. In the case of Ourosafra, the warning was about the geopolitical impact on production costs, especially on nitrogen fertilizers and fuels.<\/p>\n In the case of the Cap\u00e3o Bonito Agricultural Cooperative, the soybean cycle was extended by 30 days, causing many producers to prefer to risk planting late-season corn instead of switching to wheat. \u201cEven so, the efficiency of post-soybean planting is impressive, with sowing occurring within 24 hours of harvest. We expect to maintain the 4,000 hectares from last year,\u201d concluded agronomist Nelio Uemura.<\/p>\n The analysis of the current situation carried out by StoneX analyst Jonathan Pinheiro reinforced that the global market is experiencing a period of abundant supply, with record production in Argentina and comfortable carryover stocks. The expert explained that Argentine wheat remains extremely competitive, even gaining new markets such as China and maintaining a strong presence in Indonesia, Vietnam, and Bangladesh.<\/p>\n "Argentina currently has practically a year's worth of domestic consumption. With this high supply, it's difficult to talk about higher prices in Brazil, which ends up discouraging our producers from investing in land," Pinheiro explained.<\/p>\n Regarding the conflicts in the Middle East, the analyst highlighted that the impact is more logistical than directly on grain prices. There was a reduction of over 50% in the flow of ships through the Red Sea, with an increase of 200% in routes through the Cape of Good Hope, which raises costs and delivery times for exporters from Europe and the Black Sea.<\/p>\n \u201cThis logistical reconfiguration favors the competitiveness of Argentine wheat in the current scenario. For Brazil, the exchange rate volatility typical of election years may be the only factor driving prices domestically from May onwards,\u201d he explained.<\/p>\n The meeting also marked Nelson Montagna's farewell from the presidency. He highlighted the leap in S\u00e3o Paulo's wheat production, which in 12 years went from 90,000 to 500,000 tons, a record harvest achieved in 2022. \u201cI am concluding my third term and have witnessed, throughout these years, significant advances in volume and, especially, in the quality of S\u00e3o Paulo's wheat, a factor that reflects the serious and committed work of everyone involved in the Sectoral Chamber. We will continue working to achieve our goals and expand support for producers, strengthening dialogue with the state government and the Department of Agriculture,\u201d Montagna celebrated.<\/p>\n The vice-president of the Sectoral Chamber, Jos\u00e9 Reinaldo Oliveira, described the current moment as a "blind flight" for wheat farmers. "We have many questions, few answers, and a lot of uncertainty in the face of various variables. When we have a full harvest with good productivity and quality, the market remains sideways and ends up bringing negative profitability. We hope that in 2026 we will be able to achieve some better returns," Oliveira considered.<\/p>\n In addition to the financial report, the S\u00e3o Paulo Agribusiness Technology Agency (APTA) presented advancements in agricultural research and emphasized that, despite market challenges, technological support for S\u00e3o Paulo producers continues to evolve. The meeting also included the presentation "Be8 Project \u2013 transforming grains into energy and food," as well as presentations by OR \u2013 Seed Genetics and Biotrigo.<\/p>\n The meeting was also marked by the farewell of the Head of Technical and Institutional Advisory of the Secretariat of Agriculture, Jos\u00e9 Carlos Junior, from the coordination of the Sectoral Chambers of the Secretariat of Agriculture, and the presentation of Fabiana Ferreira da Costa Gouvea, who assumes the position and reinforced the commitment of the Secretariat of Agriculture and Supply of the State of S\u00e3o Paulo (SAA-SP) to receive and discuss the requests of the S\u00e3o Paulo wheat sector.<\/p>\n The full live stream of the first meeting of the year of the S\u00e3o Paulo Wheat Sector Chamber is available on the Sindustrigo channel.\u00a0YouTube<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n![](\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/opresenterural.com.br\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/eaeaa4775a6b26b882c49474768e30b1_medium.jpg?resize=300%2C200&ssl=1\")
Reports from cooperatives confirm that financial factors and the weather window are the main obstacles for 2026. At Capal Cooperativa Agroindustrial, the estimate is for a 20% drop in the wheat area compared to the previous cycle. Technical Coordinator Airton Rodrigues pointed out that the producer's discouragement is real: \u201cThe financial aspect needs to go hand in hand with quality for planting to be viable. The producer faces risks from weather and hail, and needs security in the field to invest.\u201d<\/p>\nInfluence of the global market and logistics<\/strong><\/h4>\n
New presidency and technological innovations<\/strong><\/h4>\n
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