The outlook for livestock farming remains generally favorable in the coming months, supported by firm prices in the physical market, a more limited supply of females, and diversification of exports. Even so, factors such as more expensive replacement stock, seasonality of supply, and external uncertainties require attention from the sector.<\/p>\n
According to data from Ita\u00fa BBA Agro Consulting, the firmness of physical prices also influenced the futures market, which registered a strong increase in the last 30 days, especially in short-term contracts. In April, the appreciation was R$ 18 per arroba, while in May the advance reached R$ 16 per arroba, opening hedging opportunities at levels considered attractive for the producer.<\/p>\n
However, contracts maturing between June and September showed more moderate performance and indicate prices below current levels. At the current rate of growth in exports to China, which increased by 171% in the first quarter of 2026 compared to 2025, the quota of 1.1 million tons should be reached around August. For this to happen sooner than expected, more intense sales growth would be necessary. Even so, at the end of the year, there is an expectation of a resumption of Chinese purchases to fill the 2027 quota.<\/p>\n
Exports to other destinations are also trending positively, which helps reduce the temporary dependence on China, although the country remains the main buyer of Brazilian beef. In terms of structure, the sector maintains a favorable outlook, with a trend towards continued price stability supported by the lower availability of female cattle for slaughter.<\/p>\n
Among the points of concern is the increased cost of replacing animals, which may require higher prices for finished cattle in the medium term. In the domestic market, seasonal factors may influence demand: the World Cup in the middle of the year tends to boost consumption, while the rise in beef prices and the increased competitiveness of chicken may limit this movement.<\/p>\n
At the same time, the supply of cattle is expected to grow seasonally in the coming months, although slaughter levels may still remain below those recorded in the previous year.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n