<\/p>\n
The high probability of El Ni\u00f1o affecting Mato Grosso, predicted for the beginning of the soybean cycle, could influence the 2026\/27 crop projection. The new bulletin from the Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (Imea), published on Monday (4), indicates a possible reduction in production compared to the previous cycle, linked to climatic uncertainties.<\/p>\n
Crop productivity is estimated at 62.44 sacks per hectare, a decrease of 5.43% compared to the previous cycle. Total soybean production for 26\/27 is projected at 48.88 million tons, a reduction of 5.19%.<\/p>\n
Furthermore, the increase in production costs, driven by inputs such as diesel and fertilizers, should put pressure on margins and lead producers to adjust their technological package. The planted area, on the other hand, should grow less, reaching 13.04 million hectares (+0.25%), reflecting caution in the face of high interest rates and more restricted credit.<\/p>\n
Despite the decline, the volume remains at a historically high level, reinforcing the state's importance in the national supply of soybeans, even in a more challenging scenario from a production and economic standpoint.<\/p>\n
According to the institute, this influence on the oilseed crop projection was based on forecasts from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), which indicates an 80% chance of El Ni\u00f1o occurring in the first quarter of soybean development.<\/p>\n
With this weather forecast, and a scenario of possible irregular rainfall in the state and water variability, especially during a crucial phase for crop establishment, the initial development of soybeans may be compromised, increasing production risk right at the start of the season.<\/p>\n
Although El Ni\u00f1o has not yet fully formed in the state, according to Rodrigo Silva, Market Intelligence Coordinator at Imea, the weather patterns will be crucial for crop performance. If the phenomenon consolidates between the second half of 2026 and the beginning of 2027, its effects are likely to coincide with the planting and initial stages of soybean cultivation in Mato Grosso.<\/p>\n
\u201cWhat stands out most in this initial survey is precisely the climatic factor. With a high probability of El Ni\u00f1o, the trend is for greater irregularity in rainfall at the beginning of the cycle, which can directly impact the productive potential of the crops,\u201d he states.<\/p>\n
In a complementary analysis, Rodrigo emphasizes that the institute has already incorporated this risk into its initial projections. According to him, the productivity estimate reflects a more "conservative" scenario.<\/p>\n
\u201cThis context translates into a projected average yield of 62.44 sacks per hectare, a decrease of 5.431 TP4T compared to the previous harvest. As a result, production was estimated at 48.88 million tons, a decrease of 5.191 TP4T. In other words, this movement is directly influenced by the climatic risk associated with El Ni\u00f1o,\u201d highlighted the coordinator of Imea.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n