{"id":27372,"date":"2026-05-12T07:57:06","date_gmt":"2026-05-12T11:57:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/belacereais.com.br\/2026\/safra\/el-nino-eleva-risco-de-chuvas-abaixo-da-media-no-nordeste-em-2026\/"},"modified":"2026-05-12T07:57:06","modified_gmt":"2026-05-12T11:57:06","slug":"el-nino-eleva-risco-de-chuvas-abaixo-da-media-no-nordeste-em-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/belacereais.com.br\/en\/2026\/safra\/el-nino-eleva-risco-de-chuvas-abaixo-da-media-no-nordeste-em-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"El Ni\u00f1o increases the risk of below-average rainfall in Northeast Brazil in 2026."},"content":{"rendered":"

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Climate projections for 2026 raise a warning flag for Northeast Brazil. The trend of El Ni\u00f1o formation in the coming months should increase the risk of below-average rainfall and amplify climatic irregularity in the region, especially between June and August, a period considered strategic for part of the Northeast's rainfall regime.<\/p>\n

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Dr. Alexandre Magno, a meteorologist, says: "Historically, when this area warms up, there is a decrease in rainfall along the coastal strip."<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

The assessment comes from Dr. Alexandre Magno, a meteorologist who monitors the evolution of ocean temperatures and the main international climate forecasting models. According to him, the gradual warming of the Pacific Ocean waters is already showing consistent signs associated with the climatic phenomenon.<\/p>\n

Although El Ni\u00f1o is not yet officially fully established, current indicators point to an ongoing strengthening process, especially in the maritime area near the west coast of South America. "When this area warms up, historically there is a decrease in rainfall along the coastal strip," said the meteorologist.<\/p>\n

The latest data shows that sea surface temperatures have already exceeded neutral levels. The expectation is for continued warming in the coming weeks, increasing the likelihood of this phenomenon becoming established between June and August.<\/p>\n

Climate models used by major international meteorological centers indicate a chance of El Ni\u00f1o forming between 60% and 70% during this period.<\/p>\n

In addition to the Pacific, experts are also monitoring the behavior of the Atlantic Ocean, which is currently experiencing elevated temperatures. This warming may favor isolated rainfall events and partially mitigate some of the effects of El Ni\u00f1o.<\/p>\n

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Photo: Roberto Zito<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Nevertheless, the technical assessment is that the warming Atlantic should not substantially alter the scenario of irregular weather predicted for the coming months. "The warming Atlantic helps to break atmospheric blockages, but it doesn't guarantee significant rainfall," explained Magno.<\/p>\n

According to the meteorologist, there is convergence among different international models, including meteorological centers in the United States, Europe, and Germany, regarding the trend of reduced rainfall as the phenomenon intensifies.<\/p>\n

The reliability level of these projections ranges between 60% and 70%, a percentage considered relevant in medium-term climate analyses.<\/p>\n

Concern is growing when comparisons are made with historical episodes of strong El Ni\u00f1o, such as the one recorded between 1997 and 1998. During that period, different regions of the country faced consecutive months of low rainfall, impacting reservoirs, water supply, and agricultural production.<\/p>\n

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Photo: Gilson Abreu<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

For 2026, although the scenario presents important differences, especially because of the warmer Atlantic, the patterns observed so far indicate similar behavior, with a tendency for rainfall to decrease throughout the year.<\/p>\n

Given this context, the recommendation is to plan ahead, especially for activities that depend on regular water supply.<\/p>\n

The guidance includes optimizing water use, expanding storage capacity on properties, and adopting strategies to cope with potentially longer dry spells. "The phenomenon is global in scale and unavoidable, but local impacts can be managed with information and planning on the properties," stated the meteorologist.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Access News Source <\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

As proje\u00e7\u00f5es clim\u00e1ticas para 2026 acendem um sinal de alerta para o Nordeste brasileiro. A…<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":27373,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[258],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-27372","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-safra"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/belacereais.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27372","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/belacereais.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/belacereais.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/belacereais.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/belacereais.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=27372"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/belacereais.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27372\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/belacereais.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/27373"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/belacereais.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=27372"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/belacereais.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=27372"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/belacereais.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=27372"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}