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Although there are still disagreements regarding the El Ni\u00f1o phenomenon that may affect Brazil's 2026\/27 harvest, some projections for the new season are beginning to emerge, already accounting for its effects. Imea (Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics), in its weekly bulletin, reported soybean production in the state at 48.88 million tons, 5.21 TP4T less than in 2025\/26.\u00a0<\/p>\n
"However, the realization of this scenario will depend on the intensity of the phenomenon throughout the harvest season," say the organization's experts.<\/p>\n
Traditionally, this climatic phenomenon generates a greater risk of dry spells and water deficits in the state throughout the oilseed production cycle, potentially impacting not only planting but also plant development, depending on its duration and intensity. International institutes, such as NOAA \u2013 the official US climate department \u2013 have already confirmed signs that El Ni\u00f1o is not only forming but also intensifying.\u00a0<\/p>\n
"In Brazil, the phenomenon alters the distribution of rainfall among producing regions, favoring accumulated precipitation in the South and increasing its irregularity in the Central-West, North, and Matopiba regions," adds Imea.<\/p>\n
Given these forecasts, the definitions, decisions, and strategies for the new Brazilian harvest are already being made and redefined. "Another harvest, another challenging year for Brazilian producers," says the director of Incia (Institute of Agronomic Sciences), Professor Elmar Floss, in an interview with Bom Dia Agroneg\u00f3cio. Among these strategies is, primarily, the diversification of soybean varieties chosen by producers and the planting time for each one, thus mitigating risks and the effects of potential adverse weather conditions.\u00a0<\/p>\n
\u201cIt\u2019s interesting for farmers, in addition to super-early cycle varieties, to also use longer-cycle varieties, medium-cycle varieties. Faced with climatic challenges, it\u2019s always important to diversify cultivars with different cycles, and also sowing times,\u201d advises Professor Floss. \u201cUnfortunately, most producers always look at last year\u2019s climate, and the climate doesn\u2019t repeat itself. It really doesn\u2019t. We have to stop looking in the rearview mirror and pay more attention to the windshield.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n
The expert also says that there is, at least for now, no guarantee that the best time for planting will be at the end of the indicated window, which reinforces the need for diversification. "Over the years, if you average it out after five years, those who diversify have greater stability in production," he explains. "The most critical phase in which we lose soybeans is the transition from flower to pod. Any stress the plant experiences during this period causes a hormonal imbalance, and its self-defense mechanism causes it to abort the reproductive organs."<\/p>\n
Given all of this, for producers, especially in Mato Grosso, for whom soybean crop rotations represent a significant part of their cash flow and profit margins, cultivar choices are always concentrated on those with slightly shorter cycles.\u00a0<\/p>\n
\u201cHaving two crops in the same area, in the same year, means income for the producer, it feeds the entire economic chain, and in this case, producers don't diversify to avoid the risk of not planting corn in the off-season. So, they have to weigh these factors: increase the risk and guarantee the off-season crop, or, in that area where they won't plant corn, they will plant cover crops, which gives them the possibility of diversifying through different cycles,\u201d advises Floss.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n