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The climate forecast for October 2026 indicates above-average rainfall in areas of the South, Mato Grosso do Sul, S\u00e3o Paulo, southeastern Minas Gerais, and Rio de Janeiro, while parts of the North, Northeast, and Central-West are expected to register below-average rainfall. According to data released by the National Institute of Meteorology (INMET), temperatures are expected to be above average in much of the country, impacting the planting and development of crops.\n<\/p>\n
According to data released by the National Institute of Meteorology (INMET), the Northern Region is expected to predominantly experience below-average rainfall, especially in much of Roraima, northern Amazonas, and areas of southeastern and southwestern Par\u00e1.<\/p>\n
On the other hand, rainfall volumes are expected to be near or above average in southwestern Amazonas, the Acre Valley, and Amap\u00e1.<\/p>\n
In the Northeast, rainfall is expected to be below the normal range for October. Accumulated rainfall should be close to the climatological average in Rio Grande do Norte and in areas of Cear\u00e1, Piau\u00ed, Para\u00edba, and Bahia.<\/p>\n
Between eastern Sergipe and northeastern Bahia, as well as southern Bahia, the forecast indicates deficits in accumulated rainfall.<\/p>\n
In the Central-West region, according to data released by INMET, the forecast indicates the possibility of rainfall volumes below the historical average. The exception is the southwest and east of Mato Grosso do Sul, where accumulations above the climatological average are expected.<\/p>\n
Below-average rainfall is expected to be concentrated in Mato Grosso, Goi\u00e1s, the Federal District, and areas of Mato Grosso do Sul, especially in the Pantanal and the north-central part of the state.<\/p>\n
In the Southeast region, rainfall distribution tends to be irregular. Minas Gerais and Esp\u00edrito Santo are expected to have accumulations below the climatological average. In S\u00e3o Paulo, more significant volumes are expected, mainly between Itapetininga and the South Coast.<\/p>\n
In Rio de Janeiro, the accumulated rainfall is expected to be close to the average, although with an uneven distribution.<\/p>\n
In the Southern Region, according to data released by INMET, the trend is for rainfall above the climatological average, with positive anomalies of approximately 75 millimeters. The greatest excesses are expected in eastern Rio Grande do Sul, where accumulations could exceed the average by up to 200 millimeters.<\/p>\n
According to data released by INMET, October is expected to have above-average temperatures in much of the country, with the largest deviations predicted for areas in the Midwest and Southeast.<\/p>\n
In the Northern Region, positive deviations are expected to range between 1.5\u00b0C and 2\u00b0C across almost the entire region. The highest values are expected in the central regions of Par\u00e1 and Acre. In other areas, deviations may reach 1.5\u00b0C.<\/p>\n
In the Northeast, temperatures could be up to 1.5\u00b0C above average in much of the MATOPIBA region. In central Bahia, the deviation could reach 2\u00b0C. In other areas, the forecast indicates temperatures up to 1\u00b0C above the climatological average for October.<\/p>\n
In the Central-West region, according to data released by INMET, average temperatures may exceed the October average by more than 2\u00b0C, mainly in the central region of Goi\u00e1s, including the Federal District, and in the extreme northwest of Mato Grosso do Sul. In other areas, deviations may reach 1.5\u00b0C.<\/p>\n
In the Southeast, temperatures are expected to be above average across much of the region. In Minas Gerais, deviations could exceed 2\u00b0C, while in northern S\u00e3o Paulo they could reach 2\u00b0C. In other areas of S\u00e3o Paulo state, the forecast indicates values up to 1.5\u00b0C above average.<\/p>\n
In the Southern Region, temperatures are expected to be above average across almost the entire region. In Paran\u00e1, deviations could reach 1.5\u00b0C. In Santa Catarina and Rio Grande do Sul, they could reach 1\u00b0C, although in Rio Grande do Sul the forecast indicates values closer to the average.<\/p>\n
According to data released by INMET, the combination of below-average rainfall and above-average temperatures in most of the Northern Region should increase the evaporative demand of the atmosphere and maintain restrictive conditions for the planting of summer crops.\n<\/p>\n
In southeastern Par\u00e1, where soybeans are predominantly in the sowing and emergence stages, the forecast tends to keep soil water storage at reduced levels. The lower water availability in the surface layer may be more pronounced in the southern part of the region.<\/p>\n
In this scenario, the effective start of sowing may be delayed. Areas planted after isolated rainfall may also exhibit uneven germination and emergence, with the possibility of replanting if drought periods occur after sowing.<\/p>\n
A similar situation can occur in Tocantins, where soybean planting tends to be staggered and dependent on more regular rainfall. Areas sown early may have a higher risk of uneven emergence and inadequate stand establishment if there are prolonged dry periods.<\/p>\n
In eastern Rond\u00f4nia, low soil water storage levels should hinder the implementation of soy<\/a> and of rice<\/a> It depends on the regularity of rainfall. Dry spells after sowing can compromise germination, emergence, and crop establishment, with particular attention to rice, which is more sensitive to water deficiency in the initial stages.<\/p>\n In the Northeast, according to data released by INMET, below-average rainfall and above-average temperatures may also hinder the start of summer crop planting.<\/p>\n In southern Maranh\u00e3o and southwestern Piau\u00ed, soybean planting will be expected under conditions of low water availability. In the far west of Bahia, soybean and first-crop corn may also face this scenario.<\/p>\n The opening of the regular soybean planting window in the far west of Bahia, scheduled for October, is likely to occur under conditions of lower soil moisture. This may limit the initial progress of operations and concentrate planting in areas authorized for early planting.<\/p>\n The increased evaporative demand associated with heat can intensify soil water loss. In areas planted after isolated rainfalls, subsequent dry periods can impair germination and emergence, favoring uneven plant stands and increasing the risk of replanting.<\/p>\n According to data released by INMET, the dry weather in northern and southern Roraima tends to favor the maturation and drying of grains and the advancement of the third corn crop harvest, reducing the risk of quality losses.<\/p>\n However, this scenario is not expected to recover the productive potential already compromised by irregular rainfall and water scarcity recorded during the reproductive stages.<\/p>\n In the Agreste and Sert\u00e3o regions of Pernambuco, Alagoas, Sergipe, and the Northeast of Bahia, the dry weather also tends to favor the ripening, natural drying, and harvesting of... corn<\/a> third harvest.<\/p>\n In rainfed areas planted later and still in the grain-filling stage, however, the persistence of water deficit and high temperatures can limit the accumulation of dry matter, favor the formation of shriveled grains, and reduce the productive potential.<\/p>\n In the far west of Bahia, irrigated first-crop bean fields, both during sowing and emergence, tend to require a higher volume of irrigation due to above-average temperatures.<\/p>\n In the semi-arid Northeast of Brazil, the forecast of below-average or near-average rainfall and high temperatures should keep the demand for irrigation high in the fruit-growing centers of the S\u00e3o Francisco and Jaguaribe river valleys.<\/p>\n These same conditions can restrict pasture regrowth, reduce forage availability, and increase pressure on water resources intended for extensive livestock farming.<\/p>\n According to data released by INMET, the combination of irregular rainfall and above-average temperatures may hinder the maintenance of adequate soil moisture levels in the Midwest and affect the planting of the new grain crop, especially soybeans.<\/p>\n In Mato Grosso do Sul, the scenario tends to be relatively more favorable, with higher frequency and volumes of rain expected. This condition may favor the recovery of soil moisture and provide more suitable conditions for sowing, emergence, and initial crop development throughout October, despite the high temperatures.\n<\/p>\n In Mato Grosso and Goi\u00e1s, lower water availability and irregular rainfall may limit the formation of conditions necessary for sowing and compromise the uniformity of emergence.<\/p>\n According to data released by INMET, monitoring weather forecasts and soil moisture will be important to define the most favorable planting windows, reducing the risk of crop establishment failures and the need for replanting.<\/p>\n Reduced water availability also requires attention to other crops and pastures. With high temperatures, the increased evaporative demand can accelerate soil water loss and increase plant water consumption.<\/p>\n In pastures, this scenario can limit vegetation growth and recovery, impacting the availability and quality of biomass for animal feed. In irrigated areas, the increased atmospheric demand can raise the need for water replenishment.<\/p>\n According to data released by INMET, the more frequent rains and high accumulated rainfall predicted for S\u00e3o Paulo tend to favor the sowing, emergence, and initial development of soybeans during October.<\/p>\n The combination of greater water availability and high temperatures can also favor the growth of sugarcane<\/a>, vegetables, fruit trees and pastures<\/a>.<\/p>\n However, faster growth can increase the demand for nutritional management and require greater attention to monitoring and controlling pests and diseases, especially under conditions of higher humidity and temperatures that favor the development of certain phytosanitary agents.<\/p>\n For much of Minas Gerais and Esp\u00edrito Santo, according to data released by INMET, irregular rainfall and rising temperatures require attention.<\/p>\n The expectation is for a gradual recovery of soil water storage levels, an important condition for ensuring greater security in soybean and corn planting and for the establishment of plant stands.<\/p>\n Even in irrigated areas, the high evaporative demand requires monitoring of soil moisture and crop water needs to adjust irrigation management.<\/p>\n According to data released by INMET, in coffee cultivation, irregular rainfall combined with high temperatures can increase the plants' water demand and reduce soil moisture, especially in areas with lower precipitation volumes.<\/p>\n This condition can impair the uniformity of flowering, fruit set and initial fruit development, as well as limit vegetative growth.<\/p>\n The distribution of rainfall throughout the period will be important for the establishment of the next crop. In irrigated areas, the increased atmospheric demand may raise the need for water replenishment.<\/p>\n In the Southern Region, according to data released by INMET, the forecast indicates above-average rainfall and high temperatures in most of the region, with the exception of the central strip of Rio Grande do Sul.<\/p>\n The current situation calls for attention to the final development of winter crops, especially the harvest in Paran\u00e1 and the critical stages of crops in Santa Catarina and Rio Grande do Sul.<\/p>\n The combination of frequent rainfall and high temperatures can favor the occurrence of diseases and reduce the suitable windows for machinery to enter the area, hindering management and harvesting operations.<\/p>\n In flowering areas, especially wheat fields, these conditions can also increase the risk of Fusarium head blight.<\/p>\n Another challenge will be the implementation of summer crops, with a tendency towards shorter dry weather windows for soil preparation and sowing.<\/p>\n According to data released by INMET, the scenario reinforces the importance of planning cultivation areas and organizing operations and equipment.<\/p>\n For soybeans and corn, sowing under suitable soil conditions is essential to ensure emergence and plant stand establishment, an important component of productivity.<\/p>\n In irrigated rice fields, attention should be focused on lowland areas, where slower drainage can hinder soil preparation and sowing. Pastures can also suffer from excess moisture and reduced solar radiation, factors that can decrease regrowth and forage production. In this scenario, animal management becomes important to avoid excessive trampling and degradation of paddocks.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n\n<\/div>\nTHE Bela Cereais<\/strong> works with the best grains on the market and also keeps you up to date with the latest news and analyses on agribusiness.
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