{"id":28847,"date":"2026-10-23T10:52:08","date_gmt":"2026-10-23T14:52:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/belacereais.com.br\/2026\/milho\/produzir-milho-ficara-11-mais-caro-na-safra-2026-27\/"},"modified":"2026-10-23T10:52:08","modified_gmt":"2026-10-23T14:52:08","slug":"produzir-milho-ficara-11-mais-caro-na-safra-2026-27","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/belacereais.com.br\/en\/2026\/milho\/produzir-milho-ficara-11-mais-caro-na-safra-2026-27\/","title":{"rendered":"Producing corn will be 11% more expensive in the 2026\/27 crop year."},"content":{"rendered":"

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Brazilian production of corn<\/a> The harvest could reach between 146.5 million and 148 million tons in the 2026\/27 crop year, according to market estimates presented in the weekly bulletin of the International Center for Economic Analysis and Agricultural Market Studies (CEEMA). The prospect of a record harvest occurs in a scenario of relative stability in domestic prices, but with signs of downward pressure and expectations of increased stocks.\n<\/p>\n

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According to CEEMA's analysis, Hedgepoint Global Markets' first projection indicates production of 146.5 million tons, a volume 3.1% higher than the 142.1 million tons projected for the 2025\/26 season. The estimate considers a cultivated area of 22.71 million hectares, an expansion of 1.7% compared to the previous cycle, and an average productivity of 107.5 sacks per hectare, a growth of 1.4%.<\/p>\n

The National Supply Company (Conab), in turn, is working with an even higher production forecast of 148 million tons, in a planted area of 23.7 million hectares. Of this total, the first crop should account for 32.1 million tons, while the second crop is estimated at 113.2 million tons. The remainder of the production is attributed to crops in the North and Northeast regions.<\/p>\n

The planting of summer corn was progressing close to normal until October 16th, when it had reached 36% of the expected area. This percentage was slightly above the average of 35.6% recorded in the last five harvests, according to information presented by CEEMA. The development of the crops will be crucial for the realization of the production estimates.\n<\/p>\n

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In the physical market, Brazilian prices remained relatively stable during the week, although analysis has already identified a downward trend in some regions. In the main markets of Rio Grande do Sul, the reference price was R$61.00 per sack, while the state average of prices received by producers reached R$62.59. In other locations, values ranged from R$50.00 to R$62.00 per sack, with records of R$48.00 in Campo Novo do Parecis, Mato Grosso.<\/p>\n

On the demand side, corn consumption destined for ethanol production is expected to grow by 17% in the 2026\/27 crop year, reaching 34 million tons. Brazilian exports are estimated at 41 million tons, a volume 8% higher than the previous year. These indicators demonstrate the importance of industrial demand and foreign trade for the flow of projected national production.<\/p>\n

Despite the production and consumption outlook, agricultural costs are expected to increase. According to information presented by CEEMA with reference to Rabobank, the operational cost of Brazilian corn could rise by approximately 11% in the 2026\/27 crop year, reaching US$$ 820 per hectare. Fertilizer expenses are projected at US$$ 248 per hectare, an increase of 10%, while pesticide costs could grow by 35%, reaching US$$ 131 per hectare. Even in this context, the projected operating margin for corn is 55%, an indicator that does not represent net profit, as it disregards financial expenses, land costs, and other charges.\n<\/p>\n

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Export performance is also a point of concern. Brazilian corn shipments totaled 5.1 million tons in August and 5.4 million in September, below the volumes recorded in the same months of 2025. If this pace continues, Hedgepoint Global Markets estimates that ending stocks for the current marketing year could reach 14.7 million tons, a condition that tends to negatively pressure domestic prices.<\/p>\n

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THE Bela Cereais<\/strong> works with the best grains on the market and also keeps you up to date with the latest news and analyses on agribusiness.
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A produ\u00e7\u00e3o brasileira de milho poder\u00e1 alcan\u00e7ar entre 146,5 milh\u00f5es e 148 milh\u00f5es de toneladas…<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":28848,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[223],"tags":[244,248,255,249,254,250,246,247,256,245,253,252,251],"class_list":["post-28847","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-milho","tag-agrolink","tag-agrotoxicos","tag-artigos-tecnicos","tag-classificados","tag-colunistas","tag-compra","tag-cotacoes","tag-defensivos","tag-eventos","tag-noticias","tag-precos-agricolas","tag-previsao-do-tempo","tag-venda"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/belacereais.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28847","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/belacereais.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/belacereais.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/belacereais.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/belacereais.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=28847"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/belacereais.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28847\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/belacereais.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/28848"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/belacereais.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=28847"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/belacereais.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=28847"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/belacereais.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=28847"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}