China increases its share of Brazil's soybean exports to 79% in the first two months, says Anec

By Roberto Samora

SAO PAULO (Reuters) - Brazil's soybean exports to China in the first two months of the year accounted for a larger share of the country's total exports compared to the same period in 2024, amid an expected Chinese trade war with the United States after Donald Trump takes office.

In January and February, China was the destination for 79% of Brazilian soybean exports, versus 75% in the same period last year, the National Association of Cereal Exporters (Anec) pointed out this Thursday.

The increase in the share of Brazilian shipments to China, the world's largest importer of soybeans, occurred amid a decline in Brazil's total exports in the first two months of the year.

Exports from Brazil, the world's largest producer and exporter, totaled 10.7 million tonnes in the first two months, versus 12 million tonnes in the same period in 2024, after a slower start to activities in January, with a crop failure in 2024 and a delay in the start of the 2025 harvest.

“This effect (of the trade war) is still being defined, although, in the short term, export premiums have already improved. Furthermore, in the first two months of the year, China reduced its imports from the US and increased purchases from Brazil, which now represent 79% of its acquisitions in the same period,” Anec said in a report.

The US is in second place in soybean production and exports and competes with Brazil for market share.

This week, the Chinese announced retaliatory tariffs against US agricultural products. The additional rate for soybeans was set at 10%.

Anec assessed that this scenario “may increase demand for Brazilian products”, but considered that “the country may not fully benefit from this market opportunity, since internal logistics is still a limiting factor in the flow of production”.

For the month of March, Brazil's soybean exports to all destinations are expected to reach 14.8 million tons, an increase of 1.25 million tons compared to the same month last year, according to Anec, marking the first monthly advance of 2025 in the annual comparison.

In the first month of the year, Brazil's total soybean exports fell by 1.3 million tons compared to January 2024, to 1.1 million tons.

In February, exports reached 9.586 million tons, still below the 9.61 million in the same month last year, according to Anec.

OTHER PRODUCTS

The country's soybean meal exports were estimated at 2 million tons this month, around 250 thousand tons more than in March last year, according to data from Anec.

Corn shipments in March are forecast at 337.6 thousand tons, below the more than 4 million tons registered during the first two months of this year, as soybeans tend to take space from the cereal at ports as the harvest progresses.

The forecast volume for corn exports is still expected to exceed the March 2024 total by almost 200 thousand tons.

(By Roberto Samora and André Romani)