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By Ana Mano and Roberto Samora
SAO PAULO (Reuters) - Brazilians are close to exporting record volumes of soybeans in the first quarter, boosted by firm demand from the world's biggest importer China, which is currently embroiled in a trade war with the United States, three analysts said, citing shipping data.
Current volumes of soybeans being shipped do not yet effectively reflect the impacts of the new trade war, analysts said. They stressed that an escalation in the dispute would direct more Chinese demand to Brazil over time, especially in the second half of the year, as was the case in 2018.
Brazilian traders loaded 22.8 million tonnes of soybeans onto ships in the year to March 25, with 17.7 million tonnes going to China, said Eduardo Vanin, an analyst at Agrinvest. He noted that both figures “are records” despite some logistical bottlenecks and a slow start to the harvest in Brazil.
Brazil’s soybean shipments to China in the first quarter also reflect advance purchases of about 33 million tonnes made through December 2024, when the new crop had not yet been harvested and Chinese crushing markets were healthy, Vanin said. That’s 7 million tonnes more than the previous season at the same time, he said.
Brazilian farmers typically plant soybeans from September onwards and harvest the crop from the first weeks of the new year, depending on the region. Ports start to get busy from February onwards.
André Pessôa, president of Agroconsult, said the trade war does not have as much influence on shipments now, while China's advance buying movement last year suggests Chinese importers were "preparing for a possible Trump victory."
Brazil will harvest more than 170 million tons of soybeans this year, according to Agroconsult, the largest volume ever.
“I think that for now the impact (of the trade war) is still very small. But if this war continues, we may see additional demand, beyond what we already expected,” said Luiz Fernando Roque, Market Intelligence coordinator at Hedgepoint Global Markets.
He added that Chinese demand for Brazilian soybeans has been increasing for years. “It’s no news that China is increasingly centralizing its purchases here. If we look back, from 22/23 to 23/24, in the two previous seasons, we already had an increase in purchases from China here in Brazil, and a decrease in purchases from China there in the United States, and there wasn’t exactly a trade war, right?”
This movement, he recalled, intensified in 2018, with the measures taken by the Trump government.
Still, Roque expects Brazil’s soybean shipments to China to beat last year’s record in the first quarter, totaling up to 18 million tons in the period, about 2 million tons more than the previous year. He added that the effects of the trade war are likely to be more intense in the second half of the year, when the U.S. traditionally sells more soybeans to China.
In January and February, China received 79% of Brazilian soybean exports, compared with 75% in the same period last year, the National Association of Cereal Exporters (Anec) reported.
(Reporting by Ana Mano and Roberto Samora)
