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The typical Christmas rally for soybean prices was confirmed, and prices closed the trading session on December 24th with more than 10 points higher on the Chicago Board of Trade. Trading will resume this Friday, the 26th, and one of the main points of attention for traders continues to be the weather in South America. For Brazil, conditions are being monitored even more closely, since the harvest has already begun in some specific regions, mainly in Mato Grosso.
The GFS model shows that, over the next 10 days, moderate rainfall is expected in the far west of Piauí, all of Tocantins, southern and eastern Mato Grosso, all of Goiás, most of Minas Gerais, western São Paulo, central and north-central Mato Grosso do Sul, most of Paraná, central Santa Catarina, and the central and southern strip of Rio Grande do Sul.
Heavy rainfall accumulations are expected in northern Rio Grande do Sul, as well as in western and eastern Santa Catarina, eastern São Paulo, southern Minas Gerais, north-central and western Mato Grosso, and southern Maranhão.
The maps below show the forecasts up to December 31st and then up to January 3rd, and both clearly show the expected distribution of rainfall.

In addition to rainfall, high temperatures are also being monitored, with crops in full development needing more suitable conditions to guarantee productivity. And from this Thursday, December 25th, until at least this Saturday, the 27th, temperatures are expected to remain quite high throughout the country, as shown by the CPTEC/Inpe maps.
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"Soybean market players are seeking information about the productive potential of South America, given that weather conditions remain favorable. Some analysts are already speculating that, if the..."
"If Brazil harvests more than 180 million tons of soybeans, there will be direct competition with sales from American producers by the end of 2026," reports the Labhoro Group.
