EN 
PT_BR 
StoneX released its new estimate for the 2024/25 cotton harvest in Brazil, indicating a positive revision to 3.78 million tons, a slight monthly increase of 0.4% — driven by the revision in the productivity of crops in Mato Grosso, the largest cotton producing state in the country, which should reach 1.81 tons of lint per hectare, on average.
“The month of April, traditionally decisive for the development of the second harvest in the Brazilian Midwest, was marked by favorable weather conditions, boosting the good performance of crops in Mato Grosso”, explains the group’s market intelligence analyst, Raphael Bulascoschi.
On the other hand, Bahia showed a reduction in productivity prospects, due to less favorable weather in March, especially in dryland areas, which negatively affected the development of the lower and middle thirds of the cotton plants, and led to a revision of Bahia's productivity to 1.85 ton/ha.
Despite regional variations, the overall outlook is positive. With domestic cotton use remaining stable, improved production expectations should result in higher final stocks this season.
Brazilian cotton exports remain estimated at 2.9 million tons, despite the slower pace of shipments recorded recently.
StoneX warns, however, of the risks associated with international demand for cotton, which may be impacted by a recessionary global economic scenario. The environment of uncertainty, intensified by the tariff war between the United States and China, remains a point of concern for Brazilian exporters.
