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Strong exports and higher meat prices boost the rise in beef prices

The month of May maintained the tradition of being a period of weaker prices for beef cattle, reflecting the comfortable supply in the domestic market. According to the June Agro Mensal by the Itaú BBA Agro Consultancy, despite the drop in prices, Brazilian beef exports continued at a strong pace and helped sustain the market, with a significant improvement in the export spread.

Photos: Disclosure/ArquivOPR

The Cepea indicator for beef cattle closed May with an average of R$ 308.40 per arroba, a drop of 4.9% in the monthly comparison. However, the market started June recovering, with prices rising from the low of R$ 301/@, registered on May 25, to R$ 314/@ on June 16. The upward movement was also observed in wholesale beef prices, reflecting greater firmness in external demand.

The highlight was exports, which in May totaled 218 thousand tons of fresh beef, an increase of 2.9% compared to May 2024, renewing the record for the month. Year-to-date, shipments grew 10.6% in the annual comparison. In addition to the good performance in volume, export prices rose 3.4%, reaching an average of US$$ 5,200 per ton, the highest value since November 2022.

China and the United States, the main destinations for Brazilian beef, maintained a positive pace of purchases, contributing to the rise in international prices. When considering the rising export prices and the 3% decline in fed cattle in dollars in May compared to April, the export spread reached 9%, well above the 3% recorded in the previous month.

In the replacement market, calf prices continued to rise. In May, the price increased by 3.6%, with an increase also in the partial of June. In Mato Grosso do Sul, the arroba is already approaching R$ 3 thousand per head.

Photo: Ana Maio

On the other hand, slaughter data shows a mixed scenario. According to information from the Federal Inspection Service (SIF), April saw a drop in the number of slaughters compared to the same month in 2024, while May saw an increase.

In Mato Grosso, data from Indea and Imea indicate continued high slaughter of females, with growth of 3% compared to May 2024 and a drop of 8% in the slaughter of males, which fell for the fourth consecutive month. As a result, the total slaughtered in the state fell by 2% in the annual comparison.

Despite the price decline observed in May, the combination of strong exports, improved international prices and recovery in wholesale meat prices indicates a scenario of support for the beef cattle market in the coming weeks.

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