Strong demand and limited supply support corn prices in Brazil

After showing an increase in February, corn prices in Chicago continued to fall in the first half of March. In the domestic market, the prospect of a first harvest without an increase in supply and strong demand, combined with sales that were still slow, helped to sustain prices. At the end of February, the USDA held the Outlook Forum, with the first figures for the 25/26 American harvest.

In February, the advance in prices on the CBOT was 2.9%, to US$ 4.88/bu, reflecting a smaller American harvest and a tighter global supply and demand balance. However, in the first half of March, with the threats of tariffs on Mexico and Canada and the imposition of tariffs on China, the cereal gave back much of the gains accumulated in 2025, and in the period, the fall was 7.8%, to US$ 4.50/bu. Corn prices in Chicago and Sorriso

The appreciation of corn in the domestic market reflects the strong demand and the restricted supply by producers. In February, the price of corn in Campinas (SP) surpassed the barrier of R$ 80/bag and, in the first half of March, the increase reached 9.7%, to R$ 88/bag. The market remains cautious about the second harvest, with delays throughout planting helping to sustain the domestic price.

Regarding grains, the USDA Outlook Forum estimated an increase of 4% for the American corn area, a reduction of 4% for soybeans and an increase of 2% for wheat. The price ratio between soybeans and corn is more favorable for the cereal. The historical average for this ratio is 2.4 (bags of corn for 1 of soybeans) and, when it is below this, it is more favorable for corn. At the time the Outlook was released, this ratio was around 2.1, that is, better for corn.