EN 
PT_BR 
Brazilian soybean production for the 2024/25 harvest is projected at 172 million tons, representing an increase of 0.4% compared to the previous estimate of 171.2 million tons and an advance of 11% over the difficult 2023/24 harvest, which suffered severe losses in several regions of the country, according to the most recent survey by Datagro Grãos. This recovery is the result of both the growth in the planted area, which reaches 48 million hectares, 4% more than the 46.2 million hectares of the previous cycle, and the improvement of 7% in the average yield, which reaches 3,585 kg per hectare, according to.
Photo: Disclosure/Faep System
Despite the late start of sowing, given the delay in spring-summer rains in the Central-West, the 2024/25 harvest was completed within the normal window, benefiting from largely favorable weather conditions during crop development. Losses were concentrated in the south of Mato Grosso do Sul, west of Paraná and, especially, in Rio Grande do Sul, a state that is already experiencing its fourth consecutive crop failure.
With the adjustment in projections, a surplus is expected, with production expected to exceed domestic consumption by 576 thousand tons, the first positive balance after five consecutive years of deficit, although modest compared to those recorded in 2019/20 (+1.1 million tons), 2017/18 (+1.2 million tons) and 2016/17 (+2.7 million tons). For this cycle, Datagro estimates that 57.5 million tons will be crushed domestically, 3% more than in the previous year, and that 111 million tons will be exported, 11% above last season. This positive balance throughout the year should limit very significant appreciations in the prices of Brazilian grain, even in the face of record demand.
Corn
The consultancy also raised its expectations for corn production in Brazil, with a projected harvest of 132.7 million tons in 2024/25. The volume represents an increase of 0.7% compared to the 131.7 million tons estimated in the previous month and an advance of 8.7% over the 2023/24 harvest, which totaled 122.1 million tons.
Photo: Fernando Dias
The summer harvest is estimated at 25.2 million tons, 2% above the 24.7 million tons in 2023/24, despite a 7% reduction in the planted area, a consequence of low prices prevailing throughout 2024 and irregular production costs. The growth in production is attributed to the significant recovery in productivity, which reached 6,608 kg/ha, a recovery of 9% compared to 6,038 kg/ha in the previous cycle.
Winter corn 2025, responsible for 81% of national production, is projected at 107.5 million tons, close to the historical record of 108.6 million tons in 2022/23 and significantly higher than the 87.5 million tons harvested in 2023/24, when the main producing regions suffered from severe drought.
In May, the consultancy adjusted the productivity estimate from 5,914 to 5,957 kg/ha, achieving the highest yield ever recorded for winter crops in Brazil and surpassing the 2023/24 result by 7%. The area is estimated at 18 million hectares, 4% above the previous cycle and practically stable in relation to the previous survey. The increase in the area this year was a direct consequence of the appreciation of cereal prices in the last quarter of 2024.
Even with strong productivity, the expectation is that demand will exceed Brazilian production by 2.3 million tons, with the fifth consecutive cereal deficit in the country, although less severe than the previous year, 4.8 million tons.
