EN 
PT_BR 
The escalation of tensions in the Middle East is already impacting Brazilian agribusiness and will affect the cost formation of the 2026/27 harvest in Mato Grosso. A study by the Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (Imea) shows that the worsening conflict in the region and logistical bottlenecks in the Strait of Hormuz have caused a sharp increase in the future price of urea, with direct repercussions on agricultural production costs.
According to the survey, instability in the Strait of Hormuz, one of the main maritime routes for the transport of oil, natural gas, and fertilizers, has increased uncertainty about global supply, raised freight and maritime insurance costs, and increased the risk of supply restrictions. The traffic blockade in the region has already left vessels stranded off the coasts of Oman and the United Arab Emirates, exacerbating pressure on the international market.
The study data also shows that the crisis is hitting the market at a sensitive time for Brazilian supply. In the case of nitrogen fertilizers, imports usually gain momentum from March onwards and are concentrated in greater volume in the third and fourth quarters. Phosphate fertilizers, on the other hand, register more intense movement between the second and third quarters, also accelerating from March onwards, when stocks begin to form to meet the demand of the main crops. In practice, the international price increase occurs precisely during the window in which the country intensifies the replenishment of these inputs.
The most visible effect appeared in urea. The March 2026 futures contract reached US$$ 618 per ton on March 5th, an increase of 30.65% since the beginning of the conflict. In Mato Grosso, the main immediate concern is corn. As the purchase of inputs for the 2026/27 crop is still in its initial stages, producers remain more exposed to price fluctuations. According to Imea, only 5.95% of fertilizer deals for the crop had been completed up to the point analyzed.
In a simulation for high-tech corn in Sinop, the institute estimates that a 30% increase in the price of nitrogen fertilizers would raise the Effective Operating Cost (EOC) by 4.68%, equivalent to 5.90 sacks of corn per hectare. The study also indicates that for every 10% increase per point of nitrogen, the impact on the EOC is 1.97 sacks per hectare.
The study's charts show an even more sensitive scenario for corn. In Mato Grosso, fertilizer sales for the 2026/27 crop reached only 5.95% in the analyzed period, well below the historical average for this time of year. As acquisitions usually pick up pace between the first and second quarters, the surge in international prices hits producers precisely at the beginning of the purchasing window, which can increase the overall cost of the crop and even delay some negotiations.
In the soybean sector, the warning sign is focused on phosphate fertilizers. In 2025, Brazil imported 40.011 TP4T of this type of input from Egypt and Israel. In Mato Grosso, the dependence is even greater: the two countries together accounted for 58.911 TP4T of the state's phosphate purchases. This scenario increases the producer's exposure to supply shocks, logistical delays, and higher costs in the formation of the next crop.
Therefore, a significant portion of next season's planning tends to be built in a more expensive and volatile environment. Nitrogen fertilizers, such as urea, have a greater impact on the cost of corn, while phosphate fertilizers have a more significant impact on soybeans, a crop that is more sensitive to this type of input during crop establishment.
According to Rodrigo Silva, coordinator of Agricultural Intelligence at Imea, the risk goes beyond the temporary increase in urea prices. “The Strait of Hormuz occupies a strategic position in the flow of oil, natural gas, and the transport of fertilizers produced in the Middle East. With ships detained, more expensive maritime insurance, and the risk of supply restrictions, Brazilian agribusiness could face inflation in production costs and pressure on margins,” he states.
According to Imea's assessment, the combination of external dependence, logistical bottlenecks, and high international prices compromises the predictability of agricultural planning and tends to reduce the profitability of future harvests. If the current geopolitical scenario persists, Mato Grosso is expected to enter the 2026/27 cycle with more expensive inputs, greater pressure on costs, and lower profit margins for producers.
