EN 
PT_BR 
The momentum observed in January 2026 in Brazilian exports of beef and beef products not only continued but gained traction in February.
Exports of beef, fresh, frozen and processed, and other beef by-products saw a significant increase of 22.21% in total volume exported in the first two months of this year, reaching approximately 557,200 thousand tons, above the 455,900 thousand tons shipped in the same period last year. Excluding beef tallow and other fats, the total exported was 520,600 tons, 23.21% higher year-on-year, based on information from Brazilian customs.
Most notable, however, was the increase of almost 40% in revenue from these shipments, in dollars, on the same basis of comparison, exceeding the growth in export volume. This divergence signals an important recovery in the sector's margins, which managed to restore its profitability despite a more valued exchange rate at the beginning of the year, which, in theory, should have slowed shipments and harmed revenue in reais.
The disaggregated analysis of destinations confirms and reinforces the hypothesis about the sector's trade dynamics in light of the new trade framework imposed by China.
Shipments to the country grew by 22.81 TP4T in the first two months of the year, totaling 230,400 tons. Excluding beef tallow, the total volume exported would amount to 223,500 tons, 21.61 TP4T above the volume exported in the same period of the previous year. This movement supports the interpretation that Brazilian meatpacking plants may have engaged in a veritable short-term "race," accelerating slaughter and shipments to ensure the flow of tariff-free volumes before the 1.1 million ton quota ceiling imposed by Beijing is reached. The current volume represents at least 20.31 TP4T of the year's tariff-free quota.
Thus, considering the 223,500 tons, and maintaining the same pace as the first two months throughout the rest of the year, Brazil would take just under ten months to exceed the Chinese quota ceiling imposed for 2026, leaving approximately 450,000 tons out of the Chinese market to be redirected to other countries. If exports to China in 2026 followed the same volume as the first two months of 2025, it would take us practically 12 months to ship the 1.1 million tons of the quota.
Meanwhile, Brazil has managed to expand its shipments to other key markets. Exports of beef, excluding tallow and other fats, to the United States registered a jump of 47.81% in the period, totaling almost 70,000 tons. This performance is driven by a dual set of factors: the resumption of flows from November of last year, after the suspension, in July, of tariffs against Brazil, and the strong demand from the American market, which is currently facing a shortage of local meat supply.
Other destinations also showed significant growth, demonstrating a tactical diversification effort: exports to Chile increased by 22.41 TP4T (totaling 23,600 tons), while shipments to Russia jumped by 1061 TP4T (totaling 23,300 tons) and sales to Egypt grew by 63.91 TP4T (totaling 16,900 tons). Shipments to Mexico have also grown significantly, with the country now representing 21 TP4T of the Brazilian export market.
Despite expansion into alternative markets, structural dependence on a few trading partners remains. China continues to be, by far, the main destination for Brazilian beef, absorbing 42.91 TP4T of exports in the first two months of the year, slightly below the 43.51 TP4T recorded last year.
Meanwhile, the United States gained market share (increasing from 11.2% to 13.4%), as did Russia, Egypt, the Philippines, and the United Arab Emirates. As a result, the volume of exports concentrated in the ten largest markets totaled 80.5% of the total shipped, indicating an even greater concentration than the 75.4% observed in the same period of the previous year.
Still, it is too early for the sector to adopt an optimistic tone. The seemingly superlative figures for the first two months largely reflect an anticipation of shipments that may take its toll in the coming months. Currently, Brazil has already shipped at least 20% of its tariff-free quota for the year, and, if the current pace of shipments is maintained, it would reach its limit before the end of October. Once the Chinese quota is exhausted, a change in volumes will be inevitable, and the excess volumes (tariffed at 55%) will lose commercial viability.
At this point, the complexity of global value chains will once again take center stage. The redirection of flows that will no longer go to China will encounter well-known limitations: heterogeneous sanitary requirements, asymmetrical trade agreements, and the rigidity of the national production mix. Furthermore, the increased concentration of exports in a few markets increases Brazil's exposure to external shocks. Instability and conflicts in the Middle East, for example, continue to be a latent threat to logistical routes and the flow of goods to Arab markets, which have been gaining market share.
Finally, the military conflict in the Middle East has increased maritime transport costs and is expected to limit shipments to markets in the region, such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Israel. The region accounts for approximately 81% of Brazilian beef exports, second only to China and the United States.
Added to this are internal challenges, such as the prospect of an appreciated exchange rate throughout 2026, which tends to compress the competitiveness of dollar-denominated exports as soon as the effect of the "quota race" dissipates. Therefore, the baseline scenario remains unchanged: 2026 will be a year of profound adjustments. Between the statistical relief of the first two months and the forced reconfiguration that will occur in the second half, the animal protein sector will have to prove its resilience and adaptability in an increasingly restrictive and fragmented global environment.
