Supply sustains leadership in cotton exports.

High supply and increased exports maintain the cotton Brazil holds a prominent position in the global market, even amidst climate and consumption uncertainties. According to an analysis by Rabobank, the country shipped 3.4 million tons of cotton between August 2025 and July 2026, a volume 19% higher than the previous harvest and sufficient to consolidate its global leadership in exports.

The result was favored by the expansion of national cotton farming and the lower availability of competitors affected by adverse weather conditions. For 2025/26, the outlook remains favorable, with robust production close to the previous season. Bahia could reach a new record, while the Brazilian harvest is estimated at around 4 million tons. For 2026/27, however, attention is growing regarding the possible occurrence of El Niño.

Abroad, supply tends to become more restricted. The USDA points to a risk of falling production in China and Australia, and global production could decline by about 4%, with an estimated reduction of 7% in world stocks. This scenario is already reflected in prices: in August, futures traded in New York rose 6% compared to July 2026, while cotton in Mato Grosso advanced 4%.

The price increase also accelerated sales. Sales of the 2025/26 crop reached 74% of the estimated production, eight percentage points higher than a year earlier. For 2026/27, 32% had already been sold, ten points higher than the same period of the previous season. Although the USDA projects a 1.7% increase in global consumption, the analysis assesses that demand may remain stable in the face of macroeconomic challenges.