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El Niño could threaten tobacco and bean productivity in Paraná.

Paraná is expected to register a new shift in agricultural land use during the 2026/27 summer crop season, with an increase in the area dedicated to tobacco and a historic decrease in other areas. bean First crop. According to data released by the Department of Rural Economy (Deral), of the Secretariat of Agriculture and Supply (Seab), the tobacco area should grow by 4%, while beans should reach the smallest area ever recorded for a summer crop in the state.

The first estimate for the 2026/27 summer crop indicates that the area dedicated to tobacco should reach 91,000 hectares, compared to 87,000 hectares in the previous cycle. According to data released by Deral, this increase represents a rise of 4% and could result in a proportional increase in total production, provided that weather conditions are favorable during crop development. With this new growth, tobacco is expected to reach its third consecutive record for cultivated area in Paraná. This expansion reinforces the importance of the crop for small farms, especially due to its high profitability per hectare and its contribution to keeping tobacco farmers in the countryside.

Conversely, the first-crop bean planting area is expected to decrease by 12%. According to data released by Deral, the crop is expected to occupy only 90,300 hectares, representing the smallest area in history for the summer crop in Paraná. This reduction occurs amidst the expansion of soybean cultivation, which is putting pressure on the available space for beans during the first crop season.

The estimate therefore indicates a reorganization of land use in the state, with tobacco expanding its share while summer beans lose area. Despite the decline in the first harvest, beans remain relevant in the Paraná production system. The crop is consolidating itself as an important alternative in the second harvest, including in succession to tobacco.

Weather patterns will also be crucial for the performance of both crops in the 2026/27 growing season. According to an analysis by agricultural engineer Hugo W. Godinho, the El Niño phenomenon should be closely monitored by Paraná producers. The increased availability of rainfall tends to favor soil moisture. On the other hand, the increased number of cloudy days may reduce the amount of sunlight available to the plants.

This reduced availability of radiation can limit photosynthesis, impair vegetative development, and reduce the final productivity of both tobacco and beans. Lower light conditions can also hinder harvesting operations, the analysis adds.

For Paraná, El Niño tends to present a comparatively less severe scenario than La Niña, which is usually associated with periods of drought.

However, according to the analysis of agricultural engineer Hugo W. Godinho, the lack of sunlight represents a real risk to the productive potential of crops. This scenario makes climate planning a key point of attention for the next harvest, especially given the change in the distribution of areas between tobacco and beans. The combination of tobacco expansion, reduction in first-crop beans, and possible impacts of El Niño should mark the agricultural dynamics of Paraná during the 2026/27 cycle.

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