EN 
PT_BR 
The rise in corn prices on the Chicago Board of Trade in early May, with futures contracts for the 2026 second crop reaching new highs, did not translate into an equivalent increase in the Brazilian physical market. The international movement, driven by rising oil prices amid escalating tensions between the United States and Iran, finds its main limiting factor for domestic prices in the exchange rate.
Photo: Aires Mariga
The appreciation of the real reduces the competitiveness of exports at the point of origin, squeezing prices for producers. As a result, price formation in the interior becomes more influenced by domestic consumption than by international parity.
In Rondonópolis (MT), a logistical hub for the second corn crop, the discrepancy is evident. On April 30th, the export parity for delivery in August 2026 indicated R$ 43.61 per sack, while the domestic market offered R$ 47.50 for the same period, a difference of R$ 3.89 per sack in favor of domestic demand.
This domestic premium is mainly sustained by the animal protein sector and corn ethanol plants, which operate based on industrial margins and not exclusively on arbitrage with the external market. This dynamic restricts the volumes destined for export, which then depend on specific windows of opportunity and the actions of trading companies.
Photo: Jaelson Lucas
In international trade, the scenario also demands attention. By 2025, Brazil will have increased its dependence on markets in the Middle East and North Africa, after traditional buyers, such as Japan and South Korea, redirected purchases to the United States. In this context, Iran has become the main destination for Brazilian corn, with record volumes.
Although Brazil's export window is concentrated in the second half of the year, which still limits the direct impacts of the current geopolitical conflict, the recent concentration on more sensitive markets increases the risk of volatility in demand. A potential reduction in purchases by these countries could alter trade flows and further reinforce the weight of the domestic market in producer price formation.
