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With the harvesting of the first crop underway, grain production in the country is estimated at 353.4 million tons in the 2025/26 season, a slight increase of 0.3% compared to the volume obtained in the 2024/25 cycle, which maintains the prospect of a record in the historical series of the National Supply Company (Conab).
Photo: Disclosure
The planted area should reach 83.3 million hectares, an increase of 1.9% compared to the previous cycle, which corresponds to an advance of 1.5 million hectares. However, the national average productivity of the crops tends to show a decrease of 1.5%, going from 4,310 kilos per hectare in 2024/25 to 4,244 kilos per hectare in 2025/26. The data are in the 5th Grain Crop Survey for the current season, released on Thursday (12) by the Company.
In this survey, Conab points to a soybean harvest of 178 million tons, an increase of 6.5 million tons compared to the previous cycle and a new record for the crop. The climatic conditions during the analyzed period have been favorable for crop development in the main producing regions.
The oilseed harvest has already begun in most states and has reached 17.41% of the area, a higher percentage compared to the same period last year.
Photo: Shutterstock
Last year's harvest is slightly below the average of the last 5 years, according to the Crop Progress report released this week by the state-owned company. In Mato Grosso, the main grain-producing state, the harvest reached 46.81 TP4T, and yields are close to initial estimates.
For corn, the forecast is for a total harvest of 138.4 million tons, representing a decrease of 1.91 TP4T compared to the previous cycle. Even with the estimated reduction in production at the end of the current cycle, the cultivation of the first corn crop shows an increase of 7.21 TP4T in area, estimated at 4 million hectares, and production of 26.7 million tons, an increase of 7.11 TP4T over the previous harvest.
For the second grain crop, 17.9 million hectares are expected to be allocated, with planting already underway, reaching 21.6% of the estimated area in the first week of February, and with a projected production of 109.3 million tons.
Photo: Shutterstock
With planting practically complete, the area destined for rice is expected to reach 1.6 million hectares, 11.61 TP4T less than the area cultivated in the previous harvest. In Rio Grande do Sul, the country's largest rice producer, the crops are in full vegetative development, and the water sources, which had reduced levels, have recovered their water supply to the state's producing areas with the recent rains. Conab estimates that production will reach 10.9 million tons. Even with the expectation of a lower harvest in 2025/26, the outlook is that the volume will ensure domestic supply.
For beans, production is expected to remain close to 3 million tons, considering all three harvests of the legume. The first harvest shows a reduction of 11.41 TP4T in planted area, totaling 804,700 hectares, with an expected production of 967,200 tons, 91 TP4T lower than the previous harvest. This decrease is influenced by the estimated results in the southern region of the country, especially in Paraná. In contrast, in Minas Gerais, Conab forecasts an increase of 9.51 TP4T in production, estimated at 224,600 tons, making it the main bean producer in this first cycle.
Cotton farmers, another important second-crop industry, are expected to allocate approximately 2 million hectares to cotton cultivation, a reduction of 3.21 TP4T compared to the previous harvest, which should result in a production of 3.8 million tons of lint. According to Conab, approximately 88.11 TP4T of the area has already been sown.
Market
In this survey, Conab presents consolidated data on the marketing of corn from the 2024/25 harvest. The record production obtained in
Photo: Gilson Abreu
The previous cycle enabled exports to reach 41.5 million tons, according to data from the Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services (MDIC). The increase in sales to the foreign market, in the 2024/25 harvest compared to the 2023/24 cycle, is driven by ample domestic supply and higher international demand for the grain.
There was also an increase in domestic consumption, which rose from 84 million tons in the 2023/24 season to 90.5 million tons in the last harvest, a new record in the Company's historical series. This growth is mainly attributed to the increased use of corn in ethanol production, which is gaining increasing importance in the energy sector.
For the 2025/26 corn season, a further increase in both exports and domestic consumption is expected, with estimates of 46.5 million tons and 94.5 million tons respectively. Even with this increase, carryover stocks of the grain in January 2027 are expected to remain around 12 million tons.
Check out the complete information on the main crops grown in the country, along with market conditions for the products at [website/link]. 5th Survey of the 2025/26 Grain Crop, published on the Conab Portal.
