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PT_BR 
The production estimate for Paraguay's main soybean crop has been revised from 9.65 million to 10.14 million tons, placing the current cycle among the best ever recorded in the country. If the second crop reaches a volume close to 1.39 million tons, total production could reach 11.53 million tons, establishing a new historical record.
The favorable outlook began to materialize as the harvest progressed in January. Boosted by the good rainfall levels recorded in December, the first field results indicate yields above the historical average, reinforcing the scenario of high production.
“The main highlight of this early harvest has been the higher-than-expected production performance, which has led us to revise upwards the average yields in most producing departments,” emphasizes Market Intelligence analyst Larissa Barboza Alvarez.
The most significant revisions occurred in the country's main agricultural centers. In the northwest of the Eastern Region, Alto Paraná had its average yield adjusted to 3.6 tons per hectare, while Canindeyú reached 3.5 t/ha. In the south-central region, Caaguazú and Itapúa increased their productivity to 3.4 t/ha. Positive adjustments were also observed in Guairá, Caazapá, San Pedro, and Paraguarí.
Larissa Barboza Alvarez, Market Intelligence Analyst: “In normal years, the South leads the harvest, but this season, weather conditions prolonged the vegetative cycle in that region.”
Another point of attention is the pace of the harvest. At the end of January, between 20% and 30% of the area had been harvested nationwide. The greater progress in the northern part of the Eastern Region compared to the south is noteworthy, a behavior considered atypical. "In normal years, the South leads the harvest, but this season, the weather conditions prolonged the vegetative cycle in that region," explains Larissa. The expectation is that the peak of the work will occur in the first two weeks of February, with completion by the end of the month.
In the market, the scenario of high supply is beginning to put pressure on prices. Although the pace of advance sales remains in line with the average of the last three years — with 33.6% of production already negotiated — the basis is falling. Since mid-January, prices in Asunción have fallen from around USD -23 per ton at the beginning of December to levels close to USD -40 per ton.
This trend is expected to intensify as the regional harvest progresses. On Monday, February 2nd, StoneX revised its estimate for Brazilian soybean production for the 2025/26 crop upwards, raising the volume to 181.6 million tons. "With the adjustments observed in Paraguay and other South American countries, the market is moving towards a scenario of ample supply in the coming months, which should continue to influence price dynamics," concludes the analyst.
