Soybean prices rise due to global demand and climate risk.

Soybean futures and domestic prices continue to rise due to firm global demand, erratic weather conditions in the Northern Hemisphere, and uncertainties about the potential effects of El Niño on the 2026/27 crop. According to data released by Cepea, this scenario has also led some Brazilian sellers to postpone new negotiations, while FOB prices at national ports have reached their highest levels in three years.

Strong global demand continues to support soybean prices. At the same time, erratic weather conditions in the Northern Hemisphere are increasing uncertainties about the supply of the oilseed. Another factor of concern is the potential impact of the El Niño climate phenomenon on the 2026/27 crop. According to data released by Cepea, doubts regarding the effects of the phenomenon continue to contribute to driving up future and domestic prices.

In the Brazilian market, the price increase was reinforced by the stance of some sellers. According to data released by Cepea, these agents, attentive to the international scenario and climatic uncertainties, showed a preference for postponing new negotiations. Even so, when they need to sell on the spot market, many sellers have accepted longer payment terms. However, this granting of payment terms occurs amidst demands for higher prices, keeping the domestic market supported.

According to data released by Cepea, soybean export premiums in Brazil remain firm despite the increase observed in the international market. This behavior has contributed to raising FOB prices at Brazilian ports. FOB quotations have reached their highest levels in three years, reinforcing the favorable environment for soybeans in the domestic market.

Climate uncertainties have become a significant factor in shaping expectations for the upcoming season. Irregular conditions in the Northern Hemisphere and the potential effects of El Niño on the 2026/27 crop are keeping the market attentive to supply behavior. While these uncertainties persist, the combination of firm global demand, a more cautious stance from sellers, and sustained export premiums continues to support soybean prices.