EN 
PT_BR 
THE soy The week ended with a strong rise on the Chicago Stock Exchange and provided support to the Brazilian market. On Thursday (27), the first oilseed contract closed at US$ 12.56 per bushel, the highest price since January 2024. The movement was favored by concerns about the weather in the United States, the appreciation of other grains and the continuation of Chinese purchases.
According to data released by the International Center for Economic Analysis and Agricultural Market Studies (CEEMA), soybeans had closed the previous week at US$$ 12.20 per bushel. Soybean meal also supported the grain, ending the 27th near US$$ 330 per short ton, while soybean oil closed at 68 cents per pound. The North American weather became the focus of attention due to the possibility of crop losses. At the same time, increases in wheat and corn reinforced the movement in Chicago. Chinese demand completed the set of factors that kept the market buying during the week.
In Brazil, the improvement in external prices found support in port premiums, close to US$1.50 per bushel. However, the price increase was limited by the exchange rate, which remained between R$5.10 and R$5.15. As a result, the 60-kilo bag was traded between R$1.30 and R$1.40 in the main markets of the country, while in Rio Grande do Sul the reference prices were around R$1.31.
The current level represents a significant recovery compared to last year. Twelve months ago, soybeans were trading between R$ 116 and R$ 128 per sack in the Brazilian market. CEEMA calculates that the accumulated appreciation ranges from 9% to 12%, above the official inflation rate of approximately 4.5% recorded during the same period.
At the ports, available soybeans approached R$ 160 per sack, while indications for the new crop reached close to R$ 150. However, this support could be tested with the approach of the North American harvest, expected to begin in October.
Although crop conditions have worsened, the productive potential of the United States still warrants caution. The Crop Tour Pro Farmer estimated production at 124.4 million tons, above the 123 million tons indicated by the USDA on August 12th. If the harvest confirms a larger volume than expected, the entry of the product into the market could reduce upward pressure on prices.
On August 23, 60% of US crops were rated as good to excellent, compared to 61% the previous week and 69% a year ago. Development, however, is ahead of schedule: 91% of the areas were already in pod formation, above the average of 88%, a scenario that could bring forward part of the harvest.
On the demand side, China remains a key player. The United States recorded sales of 1.4 million tons of the 2026/27 crop on August 21st, with 712,000 tons destined for the Chinese market. Meanwhile, in Brazil, Anec projects soybean exports of 10.25 million tons in August, a volume 2.14 million tons higher than that recorded in the same month last year.
