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Ukraine's April wheat exports expected to reach 1 million tonnes, producers' union says

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Ukraine's wheat exports are expected to remain high at 1 million metric tons in April, up from 1.1 million tons in March, the Ukrainian agricultural producers' union UAC said on Wednesday.

The UAC statement said March exports were among the highest of the current season.

“Traders have already contracted 850,000 tonnes of wheat for April and could reach 1 million tonnes. Despite the general stagnation in demand in the European market, Ukrainian grain is finding buyers, particularly in Egypt,” the UAC said.

Ukraine is a major global wheat producer and exporter, but last year the Agriculture Ministry capped wheat exports from 2024/25 to 16.2 million tonnes, aiming to ensure a stable supply of wheat to the domestic market to avoid a spike in bread prices.

Traders have already exported nearly 13 million tonnes of wheat, according to the ministry, and Finance Minister Vitaliy Koval said on Tuesday he believed traders were meeting all the ministry's requirements on export volumes.

First Deputy Minister Taras Vysotskiy told Reuters the ministry would not revise the volume of wheat available for export in the current July-June 2024/25 season, despite the relatively high pace of shipments.

“No changes are planned. Everything is according to the memorandum,” Vysotskiy said.

Ukraine traditionally exports most of its wheat in the first half of the season and gradually decreases shipments in the remaining months, switching to corn.

UAC said it expects prices for Ukrainian new crop wheat to decline by around US$$20 per tonne freight paid (CPT) to the Black Sea to US$$190-200 per tonne in July.

“If possible, you should not rush to sell. Historically, in July-August, the market is saturated with wheat from all major exporting countries – Ukraine, Russia, Romania and the USA, and even with a deficit, the price usually falls,” the UAC noted.

The union said the price could rise to US$$220-235 per tonne CPT in October-December.

THE Bela Cereais works with the best grains on the market and also keeps you up to date with the latest news and analyses on agribusiness.
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