Soybean meal is heading for its fourth consecutive monthly decline on the CBOT in May, with the prospect of an increase in global supply. In the domestic market, the scenario is of falling prices for meal and oil, with good supply and slow demand. Increased crushing in Brazil, Argentina and the United States is putting pressure on meal prices.
Soybean meal fell 1.3% in April compared to March on the CBOT and, in the first half of May, the drop was 1%, to US$$ 289 tons. The good supply from Brazil and Argentina acted favoring the bearish scenario. Soybean oil prices rose 11.5% in the fourth month of the year in Chicago and, in the partial of May, point to a new high, of 3%, to US$49/lb. The expectation of news regarding the American biofuels program, which may increase demand for the derivative, has supported soybean oil.
Soybean meal in the domestic market fell 1% in April and -1.9% in the first half of May in Rondonópolis. The domestic market continues to be pressured by the drop in premiums and slower demand. Crushing has gained momentum in recent months, with the outlook for margins being positive so far. For oil, the drop is 2% in the partial of May in MT, to R$ 5,778 tons. The declines are caused, in particular, by the still slow demand from the biodiesel sector.
In the October to March 2025 window, Brazil processed 27.3 million tons of soybeans, 1 million tons more than the same period last year, Argentina crushed 20.5 million tons, 7.5 million tons more, and the United States processed 33.6 million tons, 1 million tons more than the same window the previous year.
In the three countries, the increase in crushing from October to March 2025 versus October to March 2024 is 13% or 9.5 million tons. With the increase in crushing in the three main bran origins and the normal harvest in Argentina, added to the unification of the exchange rate and reduction of retentions, the scenario continued to point to pressure on bran prices in the international market.