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StoneX, a global financial services company, released its July update with specific adjustments to projections for the 2024/25 grain harvest in Brazil. National soybean production was increased by just over 500 thousand tons, reaching 168.75 million tons, a historic record.
Ana Luiza Lodi, Market Intelligence Specialist at StoneX – Photos: Disclosure/StoneX
According to StoneX Market Intelligence specialist Ana Luiza Lodi, the advance is a result of the positive revision of productivity in Bahia, which rose to 4.08 tons per hectare, while the national average yield was 3.57 t/ha.
In the case of summer corn, a marginal decline was recorded in this July review. As a result, the estimate for the first harvest was now 25.6 million tons. According to StoneX Market Intelligence analyst Raphael Bulascoschi, the slight drop was caused by a reduction in productivity in Piauí, which was not offset by the increase in yield in Tocantins. “This year's summer harvest was below that of 2024. However, this decrease occurred due to the smaller area, while the national average productivity increased,” says Bulascoschi.
Positive productivity adjustments in the second harvest
Regarding the second corn harvest, the estimate was raised again, rising from 106.1 to 108.2 million tons – an increase of 2% compared to the month of June.
The increase was driven by positive productivity adjustments in states such as Paraná, Goiás, Mato Grosso do Sul, Pará and Tocantins, raising the national average yield to 6.17 t/ha. In this cycle, in general, the weather was quite positive for crops, with rainfall in part of the producing areas in June. “With this increase, total corn production in the 24/25 cycle rose to 136.1 million tons, compared to the 134 million estimated last month. The number also includes just over 2 million tons of the third crop”, highlights the Market Intelligence analyst at StoneX.
Domestic soybean consumption remains stable, while corn consumption registers slight growth
Raphael Bulascoschi, Market Intelligence Analyst at StoneX: “This year’s summer harvest was below that of 2024. However, this decrease occurred due to the smaller area, while the national average productivity increased”,
There were no changes to domestic soybean demand estimates. Consumption in Brazil remains projected at 60 million tons, and exports at 107 million tons. Therefore, the final stocks of the oilseed expected for 24/25 were adjusted to 4.95 million tons, reflecting the increase of 500 thousand tons in the production estimate.
For corn, the main change occurred in domestic consumption, which rose from 89 to 89.5 million tons, supported by the heated demand for ethanol production. Exports were maintained at 42 million tons.
With this, the StoneX report highlights that the market's focus is now on developments in the coming months, which will be decisive for the pace of Brazilian corn exports. “They will be on the radar to define shipment volumes, but it is important to emphasize that the performance of the 2025/26 North American harvest will also be a decisive factor in this scenario,” concludes Bulascoschi.
