The market projects a drop in production and an increase in corn stocks in the United States.

The international grain market projects significant adjustments for US corn in the 2025/26 crop year, with expectations of lower production and increased ending stocks. Average crop yields are expected to decline to 185 bushels per acre, a reduction of 0.91 TP4T compared to the previous figure of 186.7 bushels per acre, reflecting the worsening crop conditions throughout September.

Photo: Claudio Neves

As a result, total US production is expected to fall from 427.1 million to 422.8 million tons, a decrease of 1%. Despite the lower supply, the market estimates higher ending stocks, reaching 56.7 million tons, an increase of 5.7% compared to the previous month (53.6 million).

According to Luiz Fernando Roque, Market Intelligence Coordinator at Hedgepoint Global Markets, the movement is a result of more robust initial stocks, inherited from the 2024/25 crop, as indicated in the USDA's quarterly survey. "These larger stocks offset the expected reduction in production, which maintains the outlook for a bearish scenario in the market," he explains.

With increased reserves and a still comfortable global supply, projections indicate that corn should face greater pressure on international prices throughout the new agricultural cycle.