Record harvest and biodiesel boost soybean GDP in 2025

The harvest of a record soybean crop in Brazil in the 2024/25 season, coupled with the intensification of grain processing by the industry, has supported the forecast of strong growth in the GDP of the soybean and biodiesel chain for 2025.

Studies conducted by Cepea (Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics), from Esalq/USP, in partnership with Abiove (Brazilian Association of Vegetable Oil Industries), indicate that the GDP of the soybean and biodiesel chain could grow significantly by 11.29% in 2025. With this, the GDP of the soybean and biodiesel chain would represent 21.1% of the agribusiness GDP this year and 6.1% of the national GDP.

According to researchers from Cepea/Abiove, within the farm gate, strong GDP growth of 23.39% is estimated, due to increased production, which reached a record 170.3 million tons in 2024/25 (Abiove). Increases in area and productivity – favored by technology and climate – explain the record result in the field.

In the agribusiness sector, GDP is estimated by Cepea/Abiove to grow by 4.02%, driven by soybean crushing, which is expected to reach a record high in 2025. Demand for soybean oil, especially for biodiesel production, continues to expand in Brazil. It should be noted that, since August 1st, the mandatory blending of biodiesel with diesel fuel has increased to 15% (B15), and this context has further intensified processing in Brazil – however, this effect has not yet been factored into the calculations of this report, which considers data available up to the second quarter of 2025.

With significant performances both on the farm gate and in the agro-industry, a survey by Cepea/Abiove shows that the GDP of agricultural services should also advance strongly: almost 91% of the GDP per quarter. The input segment, in turn, shows an increase of 2.72% of the GDP per quarter.

Prices in the production chain remained stable in the first half of 2025 compared to the same period last year, due to increases throughout 2024 and also the devaluation of agro-industrial products in the second quarter of 2025.

In this context, based on information gathered up to the end of the second quarter of 2025, it is estimated that the GDP generated per ton of soybeans produced and processed could represent 4.45 times the GDP generated by soybeans produced and exported directly.

Job market

There was an increase of 4.2% in the number of people working in the soybean and biodiesel production chain in the second quarter of 2025 compared to the same period last year, totaling 2.327 million workers. Therefore, the production chain's share of the Brazilian economy was 2.27% and its share of agribusiness was 10%.

According to researchers from Cepea/Abiove, the larger area dedicated to soybean cultivation and the increasing use of technology led the input segment to register an increase of 4.51% in the number of people employed (representing just over 6,200 people). Within the farm gate, however, there was a decrease in the number of jobs (of 15.6%, or 69,300 people), which may indicate increased labor productivity. In the agro-industry, the number of workers grew by 0.74%, while in agro-services there was a significant increase in the number of people, of almost 10% (more than 156,000 people), which, according to Cepea/Abiove researchers, is linked to the increase in physical production and processing of soybeans, which generates demand for services.

Foreign trade

Brazilian exports of soybeans and biodiesel totaled 49.68 million tons in the second quarter of 2025, a volume 1.51% higher than that shipped in the same period of 2024. However, revenue from foreign sales continued to decline, by 8.31%, totaling US$19.47 billion in the second quarter of this year. The decrease in revenue is directly linked to lower prices paid for soybeans (down 9.56%) and soybean meal (down 15.7%), considering that soybean oil prices rose 9.56%

Pressure on export prices for grain and soybean meal stems from the record global harvest of 2024/25, according to researchers at Cepea/Abiove. For 2025/26, current projections indicate continued abundance, with further increases in production, expansion of trade, and comfortable stock levels.

In the case of soybeans, China remains a highlight and the main destination for Brazilian exports. For soybean meal, the European Union and Southeast Asia are important destinations and have driven the increase in shipped volumes. In the case of oil, India remains the main market, receiving more than 701 TP4T of the total oil exported by Brazil.