EN 
PT_BR 
After months of instability and tight margins, chicken meat has regained momentum in the Brazilian market. The combination of supply adjustments, recovery in exports, and firm domestic demand led to a turnaround in September, with rising prices and improved profitability for producers. This assessment comes from Itaú BBA's Agro Consulting firm, which points to a more balanced and favorable environment for poultry farming in the second half of the year.
In São Paulo, the main national benchmark, frozen whole chicken registered a 16% increase between the beginning of September and October 10th, reaching R$ of 8.20 per kilogram. Before the avian influenza outbreak in Rio Grande do Sul, the product was traded at R$ 8.80/kg. According to Itaú BBA, the recovery reflects the reduced rate of chick placements in August, the improvement in export flows, and the decrease in surpluses of unexported product, which had pressured prices in previous months.
The adjustment in supply was crucial in supporting prices. August housing figures registered their first year-on-year decline in 14 months, reducing domestic availability and helping to balance the market. At the same time, exports resumed growth, with shipments reaching their best performance of the year.
In September, exports of fresh chicken meat totaled 414,900 tons, a volume practically equal to that of September 2024. "Shipments reacted well, overcoming the logistical and sanitary difficulties faced in the middle of the year, especially after the temporary blocking of some markets," notes the consultancy.
The contrast is evident compared to June, when shipments had fallen to 291,000 tons amid sanitary restrictions caused by outbreaks of avian flu. In September, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, the Philippines, South Korea, Chile, and Singapore led Brazilian purchases.
Despite the recovery, the accumulated figures for 2025 still show a contraction of 9.31% compared to the same period of the previous year. This is mainly due to the maintenance of embargoes by China and the European Union, which represent high value-added markets. The EU, however, reopened its purchases on September 18th for the entire country, with the exception of Rio Grande do Sul, where the resumption should occur in the coming weeks. "China, meanwhile, carried out a technical mission to inspect the Brazilian sanitary defense system, a step considered decisive for unblocking, but still without a defined date," the consultancy highlights.
Itaú BBA expects exports to remain strong in the last quarter, with the possibility of further improvement following the reopening of European markets. "The export flow is practically restored and tends to strengthen, reducing domestic surpluses and supporting prices," they assess.
Domestic market
Domestically, the scenario is also favorable. Chicken consumption usually increases at the end of the year, driven by the holidays and the 13th-month salary bonus. Even with the recent price increase, chicken remains competitive compared to beef, which helps maintain the product as one of the main options on supermarket shelves and in the menus of Brazilian families.
Production costs
On the cost side, the environment is also one of relief. Itaú BBA's Agro Consulting estimates that poultry production costs rose by only 1% in September, while the average price of slaughtered chicken increased by 5% in the same period. As a result, the spread (difference between selling price and cost) rose to 38%, one of the most comfortable levels of the year.
Stability in raw materials reinforces the positive margin scenario. Corn and soybeans, the main components of animal feed, are not showing significant pressure at this time. "Demand remains strong, but corn carryover stocks should exceed expectations, reflecting the low competitiveness of exports and helping to contain costs," explains Itaú BBA.
With favorable weather conditions for the development of the summer crop and a stable supply of beef, without excess carcasses on the market, the chicken sector enters the last quarter with a solid foundation to sustain its positive performance. "The poultry business environment is currently one of the most balanced in the protein complex," emphasizes Itaú BBA's Agro Consulting. "The combination of lower supply, good competitiveness in the domestic market, and a gradual recovery in exports should guarantee firm prices and favorable margins until the end of the year."
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