Brazil emerges as the main driver of growth in pork exports in 2026.

The first projections from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) for 2026 paint a picture of stability in global pork production and open up opportunities for Brazil to expand its presence in the international market. While major global producers are not making significant progress, the expectation is that external demand will sustain the growth of Brazilian exports.

According to the USDA, global production is expected to remain virtually stable next year. China and the United States, which occupy the first and third positions in the world ranking, are not expected to register significant variations. The European Union, however, continues on a downward trajectory, with an estimated decline of 1.21 TP4T, reflecting structural challenges that have been reducing the bloc's competitiveness.

In international trade, the loss of European market share is likely to become even more evident. The European Union, historically one of the largest exporters, is expected to reduce its external sales by 7.4%. Among the four main global exporters—the European Union, the United States, Brazil, and Canada—Brazil appears as the country with the greatest growth potential, with a projected increase of 3.8% in exports.

Brazilian production is also expected to grow, albeit at a more moderate pace. For 2026, the USDA projects an increase of 1.31 TP4T, following a stronger expansion estimated for 2025. Even so, the additional volume reinforces the country's capacity to meet new markets at a time of global supply reorganization.

On the demand side, Southeast Asia stands out. Chinese imports are expected to show a slight decline of 1.2%, but other markets continue to expand. The Philippines appears as the main driver of this movement, with projected growth of 7.1% in external purchases. With this, the country should surpass South Korea and become the fourth largest importer of pork in the world, behind only Mexico, Japan, and China. Imports are forecast to be around 750,000 tons, a volume 50,000 tons higher than in 2025.

This international scenario creates favorable conditions for Brazil, which has been expanding its production and strengthening its competitiveness in exports. The sector's margins remain attractive and encourage new investments, especially if feed costs remain under control, as current projections indicate.

In the short term, the domestic market may experience some pressure on wholesale prices after the turn of the year. Even so, the gap between prices and production costs points to the maintenance of healthy margins, ensuring the sustainability of the growth rate of Brazilian pig farming throughout 2026.