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In recent days, accumulated rainfall has exceeded 70 millimeters in most summer crop-producing regions. In several production hubs, recorded levels ranged from 10% to over 200% above the historical average, indicating episodes of intense precipitation, according to a technical report from EarthDaily. “From an agronomic standpoint, this excess water favors the initial phase of the crop cycle, benefiting germination, plant establishment, and vegetative expansion, as well as reducing risks associated with late or irregular sowing. However, concentrated rainfall in certain areas can lead to waterlogging, delay field operations, and increase phytosanitary risks in more vulnerable locations,” says Felippe Reis, crop analyst at EarthDaily.
Despite increased soil moisture, the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) remains close to the historical average, but with an unfavorable trajectory, similar to the pattern observed in the 2024 crop season. Recent water recovery should support the advancement of crop development, but it will still be necessary to monitor the NDVI response in the coming weeks to confirm whether this improvement will translate into consistent gains in vigor and productive condition throughout the cycle.
In Goiás, the NDVI is at its lowest level in the last five cycles, but remains at a similar level to the 2020/21 crop, which showed satisfactory productivity. This factor reduces current concerns. The recent increase in soil moisture and the forecast of maintaining high levels in the short term may favor the recovery of soybean crops in the state.
In Mato Grosso do Sul, the NDVI is close to the average, but with unfavorable dynamics, similar to the behavior observed in the poor year of 2024. Even so, soil moisture has registered a strong increase in recent days and should remain high in the short term, with crops recovering, although excess water may increase phytosanitary risks.
In Minas Gerais, vegetation vigor remains below average in summer crop areas. However, soil moisture is trending upwards and should continue this trend in the short term, creating favorable conditions for crop recovery.
Attention in the South
In the northern region of Paraná, the recent heavy rains may have had adverse effects on summer crops, especially in soils more susceptible to waterlogging. Among the main risks are delays in vegetative development and an increased incidence of diseases associated with excess moisture. The forecast of continued high rainfall reinforces the need for constant monitoring to identify potential losses early and assess the impacts on management and the schedule for the next stages of the cycle.
Following the episodes of intense rainfall observed in recent days, projections from the ECMWF and GFS models indicate reduced precipitation volumes in the short term for Rio Grande do Sul. This condition should contribute to decreasing the risk of soil saturation, favoring the recovery of affected areas and the normalization of field operations, especially in regions with higher recent water saturation.
The ECMWF and GFS models indicate above-average rainfall for much of the soybean-producing area in the short term, maintaining a predominantly wet scenario. However, some areas are expected to register more modest volumes, especially in the far south and in portions of the north of the soybean-growing region. This heterogeneity may result in contrasting conditions, with a risk of excess water in some crops and the persistence of localized limitations in less favored areas.
Between December 10th and 17th, projections indicate continued high soil moisture levels across most agricultural areas, with the possibility of water surplus, particularly between Paraná and São Paulo. In these regions, the agronomic risk is associated with soil saturation, restricted root development, and increased susceptibility to disease.
Conversely, western Bahia tends to experience reduced humidity during this period, which may reintroduce localized water limitations in areas where vegetative growth still depends on more regular rainfall to consolidate productive potential at the beginning of the cycle.
