EN 
PT_BR 
The soybean market experienced high price volatility throughout 2025, in a context of ample global supply, trade disputes between China and the United States, changes in the "retenciones" policy in Argentina, and expanding demand in several countries.
Average prices were the lowest in recent years, both in Brazil and internationally. The CEPEA/ESALQ – Paranaguá (PR) and CEPEA/ESALQ Paraná indicators recorded their lowest annual averages since 2019 in real terms in 2025. At CME Group, the first-maturity contract had its lowest annual average since 2020.
In Brazil, despite the year starting with the lowest carryover stock in four harvests, the accelerated progress of the 2024/25 harvest confirmed a record production of 171.48 million tons.
Photo: Gilson Abreu
The crop failure recorded in Rio Grande do Sul was offset by high productivity in other states, which increased domestic availability and liquidity in the spot market. With this performance, the country accounted for approximately 401% of world production, estimated at 427.15 million tons by the USDA.
Argentina and the US also experienced a significant recovery in production, reaching their highest volumes since the 2021/22 harvest. The US harvested 119.04 million tons, an increase of 51 TP4T compared to the previous season, while Argentina produced 51.1 million tons, an increase of 61 TP4T. Other countries also reached record levels, reinforcing the scenario of ample global supply.
On the demand side, performance was also significant. China imported 108 million tons, an amount 3.5% lower than the previous harvest, but this decline was offset by increased purchases from other destinations.
In total, global soybean trade reached 184.8 million tons in 2024/25, an increase of 3.91 TP4T, with Brazil accounting for 55.81 TP4T of global exports. Brazilian shipments reached a new record in 2025. China remained the main destination, with a share of 78.31 TP4T (from January to November), while Argentina increased its imports of Brazilian soybeans by 73.51 TP4T, an atypical and significant movement throughout the year.
