EN 
PT_BR 
The January report from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) brought significant revisions to the corn market, reinforcing a scenario of increasing global supply in the 2025/26 season. World production was raised to 1.296 billion tons, a growth of 51 TBW compared to the previous cycle, driven mainly by the United States and China.
Photo: Disclosure/OPR Archive
In the United States, the harvest was revised from 425.5 to 432.3 million tons, reflecting an increase in harvested area and higher-than-expected productivity. As a direct consequence, US ending stocks also increased, rising from 51.5 to 56.6 million tons, raising the stock-to-consumption ratio to 13.6%. This movement reinforces the perception of greater supply comfort and reduces the risk of short-term tightening.
China also had its production adjusted upwards, from 295 to 301.2 million tons, which contributed to the increase in global ending stocks, now estimated at 291 million tons, compared to 279 million in the previous report. Despite Chinese consumption continuing to grow, especially for animal feed, the increase in domestic production reduces the need for additional imports.
In Brazil, the scenario is different. Production remained at 131 million tons, below the previous harvest, reflecting a combination of factors.
Photo: Disclosure
Despite lower productivity and climatic limitations, exports are still estimated at 43 million tons, supported by the competitiveness of Brazilian corn in the international market. However, ending stocks remain tight at 3.7 million tons, with a stock-to-consumption ratio of only 2.61 TP4T, indicating greater sensitivity to potential logistical or supply problems.
Argentina showed a slight recovery in production, with an estimated harvest of 53 million tons, while Ukraine and the European Union maintained stable production, still impacted by climatic and geopolitical factors.
In the overall balance, consumption grows 3%, to 1.285 billion tons, a slower pace than the increase in production. The result is a reduction in tension in the international market, with high inventories acting as a buffer against volatility, especially in the first half of 2026.
