EN 
PT_BR 
The price of milk paid to producers rebounded in January 2026 after nine consecutive months of decline. Calculations by the Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics (Cepea) at Esalq/USP show that the price of milk paid to producers in January 2026 closed at R$ 2.0216/liter in the Brazilian average, a slight increase of 0.9% compared to December 2025, but a sharp drop of 26.9% compared to January 2025, in real terms (values were deflated by the IPCA of January 2026).
Photo: Fernando Dias
Researchers at Cepea indicate that the result, which confirms the sector's expectation of firm prices in January, is due to specific adjustments in production in different dairy basins. The stability with an upward bias is justified by the market still being well-supplied with dairy products, but suffering from negative pressure on the production base.
The consecutive drops in the price of milk at the farm level in 2025 have narrowed producer margins. Even with the relative stability of costs in 2025, Cepea's research indicates that, in January 2026, the Effective Operating Cost (EOC) rose by 1.321 TP4T on average in Brazil. The appreciation of corn also continues to limit the producer's purchasing power: in January, 33.56 liters of milk were needed to purchase a 60 kg bag of grain, 3.761 TP4T less than in the previous month, but 15.21 TP4T above the average of the last 12 months (of 29.12 l/sc).
As a result, investments in the activity tend to decrease. Seasonality also reinforces the decrease in milk collection. From December 2025 to January 2026, the Milk Collection Index (ICAP-L) fell 3.6% in the Brazilian average, driven mainly by results in the South and São Paulo.
While there is some pressure on the supply side and competition for raw materials, the mechanisms for passing on price increases remain blocked on the industrial and commercial sides, since retail sales are still not sufficient to "decompress" the system. The industry continued to struggle to pass on costs to distribution channels in January, given that consumption remains price-sensitive.
Chart 1. Series of average prices received by the producer (net), in real values (deflated by the IPCA of January/2026)
A survey conducted by Cepea with support from the Organization of Brazilian Cooperatives (OCB) shows that, in January, the average prices of UHT milk, mozzarella, and powdered milk fell by 1.44%, 1.49%, and 0.15% respectively, in real terms, compared to the previous month. At the same time, imports increased by 8% from December 2025 to January 2026, with the acquisition of 178.53 million liters in milk equivalent (EqL). The increase of 16.75% in exports (which totaled 4.3 million liters EqL) was not enough to balance the market.
Starting in February, the upward trend may solidify, but even so, this movement should occur gradually and moderately, since the price increase is contingent on the depletion of inventories.
