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Possible change in tilapia classification could reduce Brazilian exports by up to 90%.

The possibility of including tilapia on the list of invasive exotic species has once again raised concerns in the national aquaculture sector. On May 27th, the National Biodiversity Commission (Conabio) is scheduled to vote on a proposal that could classify the species as such. According to a technical analysis prepared by Peixe BR, the measure could have significant impacts on Brazilian exports and affect the entire aquaculture production chain.

Photos: Alexandre Marchetti/Itaipu Binacional

According to the association's survey, the decision could be interpreted internationally as an official acknowledgment of environmental risk by the Brazilian government itself, creating precedents for sanitary, environmental, and commercial restrictions in markets considered strategic for the sector.

The main concern relates to the performance of tilapia exports, especially to the United States, the main buyer of the Brazilian product. Currently, approximately 85% of the national exports of the species are destined for the North American market, generating around US$$ 35 million per year.

The study also points to a precedent considered critical for the sector. “In 2010, the United States classified Asian carp as an invasive species. As a consequence, Chinese exports of the species registered a drop of approximately 97% in just one year, with no subsequent market recovery,” shares the president of Peixe BR, Francisco Medeiros.

President of Peixe BR, Francisco Medeiros: “In 2010, the United States classified the Asian carp as an invasive species. As a consequence, Chinese exports of the species registered a drop of approximately 97% in just one year, with no subsequent market recovery” – Photo: Press Release/Peixe BR

Based on this scenario, Peixe BR's analysis projects that the eventual classification of tilapia as an invasive species in Brazil could result in a reduction of up to US$901,400 in exports of the species within a six-month period. The estimated financial impact would exceed US$38 million for the tilapia supply chain alone.

In addition to the direct effects, the document warns of possible indirect impacts on other species and segments of Brazilian aquaculture. The projection is for a cascading effect capable of generating annual losses of approximately US$$ 64 million to the exporting fishing sector.

Native species, such as tambaqui and pintado, could also suffer commercial consequences due to increased international audits, stricter sanitary requirements, and potential damage to the image of Brazilian aquaculture in the international market.

Another point highlighted by the analysis is the risk of compromising international certifications, including BAP, ASC, and Global GAP, which adopt rigorous criteria related to environmental control and species management.

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