Institution forecasts surplus in the coffee market.

The global coffee market is heading towards a more comfortable supply situation in 2026/27, although the adjustment is occurring more slowly and unevenly than previously anticipated. This assessment comes from Rabobank, which maintains its projection of a surplus of 8.9 million bags for the season, despite the difficulties observed in the short term.

One of the main areas of concern is the Arabica market. Delays in exports from Brazil and Colombia are expected to keep ICE-certified stocks low for several weeks. According to the analysis, a more significant replenishment of these volumes is unlikely before November. In the case of Robusta, the scenario is different, as certified stocks have begun to show recovery.

Weather conditions also remain on the radar. El Niño poses real risks to different producing regions, but Rabobank assesses that market prices already reflect, with increasing intensity, the expectation surrounding these potential impacts, and not necessarily effects that have already materialized in the crops.

On the demand side, clearer signs of a reaction to high prices are beginning to appear. Imports by non-producing countries fell by 6.21 TP4T in the second quarter compared to the same period of the previous year. Over the last 12 months, the decrease was 0.61 TP4T.

Even with expectations of a largely surplus global balance in 2026/27, the combination of tight Arabica stocks, export delays, and climate risks indicates that the transition to a more supplied market may still face periods of volatility.