Harvest progresses with credit and weather on the radar.

The Brazilian harvest is entering a new phase with high production, growth in some crops, decline in others, and warning signs regarding rural credit and the weather for the coming cycles. According to Antonio Prado GB Neto, an agribusiness consultant, the data from Conab's 12th Crop Survey show... soy and corn as the main drivers of the volume produced in 2025/26.

Soybean production reached 180.41 million tons, an increase of 5.21% compared to 2024/25, while total corn production reached 144.01 million tons, a growth of 21% of the total. Among the largest increases were castor beans, with an advance of 21% of the total, sorghum, with 20.4% of the total, and peanuts, with 10.5% of the total. Conversely, sesame registered a decrease of 44.2% of the total, followed by rice, with a decline of 13.2% of the total, and beans, with a decrease of 3.6% of the total.

The first survey for the 2026/27 harvest points to the prospect of increased acreage, but with productivity starting under pressure. In animal proteins, the assessment indicates a lower supply of beef in 2027, while chicken and pork production advance, increasing competition for consumers.

Another point of concern is rural credit. Disbursements fell 37.91% compared to the previous year, while R$207.4 billion is already classified as problematic operations. This volume represents almost one in four reais of the portfolio, requiring attention.

In terms of climate, El Niño is gaining strength, with rainfall concentrated in the South-Central region. For the North-Central region, this scenario reinforces the need to monitor rainfall forecasts throughout the development of the next crop season. This information was released on LinkedIn.